Gold Sell

Here I am correlating Gold and SPX performance. Gold is inversely correlated to SPX .

The bottom blue line drawn on the inverse of SPX indicates that the SPX has remained flat over the last two months. The top blue line indicates that Gold however has run away over the last two months. The other interesting thing to note is XAUSD/ SPX relative to the 200 MA. The duration and size of the GAP suggests some form of market correction on the way.

There is some rationale why the XAU is looking as strong as it is. Growing geopolitical concerns have been escalated due to media frenzy in a period where concerns are raised over whether shares are overvalued. The counter question now is whether Gold is overvalued or not. Here my long-term sentiment is changing from bearish to neutral. There are those that believe that Asian demand is increasing whilst production is declining - the flaw in this argument is that output will increase to match price. On current price levels I do see production increases to match demand and may even exceed demand.

From a shares side I expect Q1 performances to re-ignite a bullish stock market outlook. Whilst I don''t expect a full scale bull-run , I do expect a certain amount of return of confidence to stocks.

In the immediate short-term I see Macron going through in the first round of French elections and as news breaks on the real nature of the latest "terrrorist" bombing, I would expect the market to be dumping gold in favour of EUR.