FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
4797 46 75
4 months ago
So finally we got our decline.
I was reading on a few webpage this weekend where the authors were talking about 1450$ gold             by the end of this week. It seems will not happen though.

Before anyone would go all in with shorts I would like to warn them... WE ARE IN A NEW BULL MARKET.
On the 30.05. We printed the low of a 6 month rally. On the 1st of June we entered the second trend of the bull .
There will be declines but for catching them we have to know where we are in the cycle.
Warning signs:
Gold             miners ( GDX             , GDXJ             ) are not falling so hard.
Silver             will have only a 1$ decline.


My cycle count in gold             shows me that we are on DAY 31. This daily cycle topped on day 27.
We printed the hanging man - yes it was a hanging man and it worked. We have 3-5 more days and we will print the DCL. I thought that the DCL would be on the FOMC meeting but if we continue this violent decline tomorrow and Thursday we are done and the rally will start again. So I'm waiting for the 50 EMA tag around 1300 $ and I will load up with gold             for the next rally up to 14++...
We see how and when will get there.

Don't forget when we start to rally again the second daily cycle will start . The 2nd daily cycle is always where the big gains are made. So what we don't want to get caught with shorts in the second daily cycle. So this week the latest I'm going to close my shorts and waiting for the DCL to enter the long party.
4 months ago
Comment: Today's menu:
Pop at high volume in the bear flag in the following 3-4 hours.
We will tag 1347$.
snapshot
4 months ago
Comment: Gold is printing a pathetic rally with the falling stocks and weakening dollar.
I'M almost 100% sure that we will break down the flag and price will drop to near 1300$...
Gold should rally much harder when everything else is falling.
But DCL is DCL .
4 months ago
Comment: The bear flag broke down. Just as I predicted.
snapshot
4 months ago
Comment: It was so weak that couldn't tag the upper trendline n the flag.
Cornhub
4 months ago
Analysis on point, I'll give you some corns for that~~
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Cornhub
4 months ago
Thanx! :)
Reply
jinyuji210
4 months ago
I want to prepare for long gold. which one I can buy, NUGT OR GDX?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO jinyuji210
4 months ago
These are miners. NGT 3x ETF.
I will be trading xauusd.
Reply
jinyuji210 chartwatchers
4 months ago
thanks~
Reply
xmrider chartwatchers
4 months ago
If you are trading the XAUUSD, would this be better?
Long 3X UGLD VelocityShares 3X Long Gold ETN
Reply
Mannnassser
4 months ago
Sir .. I think price may correct to 1338 - 1342 within the coming 4 hous candle then to continue falling ... Do you agree with me?
+4 Reply
Mannnassser
4 months ago
Hours
Reply
toothless
4 months ago
THANK YOU, Arpi! Your charts and analyses are still my daily reading every morning. Mahalos from Hawaii
+1 Reply
bertcoin PRO
4 months ago
Thanks again Arpi! DUST wasn't rallying like I wanted over the past week, just some minor profits so I bailed out (a little early today!). Looking forward to NUGT at the DCL. Trying to learn your read on cycles. I'm still a little confused on the ICL vs. DCL. Is your May 30th "DCL" the "ICL" (end of the 4th cycle. Now we are in the 1st cycle from the ICL). Do you consider the "19" on June 24th any kind of cycle low, or was that too short at 19 days? Thank you! (Making a killing on LABU because of you!)
Reply
piptamil
4 months ago
Chartwatchers are my inspired trader...Always giving great insights.
+1 Reply
Marvin
4 months ago
Great information as always. Thank you Arpi.
+1 Reply
Ronnee
4 months ago
What if they hike 27th? Can it not hang abt until then? Thanx for all your work..
Reply
Apple2016
4 months ago
Arpi, Love your analysis. Thank u and keep up with ur good job:)
+1 Reply
lslcqq1984
4 months ago
Sir,thanks for your views, really helpful. Is any way i can conctact you by person, like what's up, or email, i want to learn the daily cycle, how to caculate the daily cycle, thanks
Reply
rohithisgood
4 months ago
A lot of people post charts but your analysis/comments is what I really come for. Keep up the excellent work. I also like how you give different perspectives and variables to think of on the charts and keeping it unique every time.
+1 Reply
dericksim
4 months ago
just monitor the stochastic will do. from the daily chart, I do not think it will break below 80. if it does, 50 will be the level to watch; the cross MUST happen above 50. This is the 2nd MACD cross above zero, usually a trend will have 3-5 cross before a bigger retrace of the entire range of the time frame that you are looking at. In this case the daily chart warrants a retrace of $80-100. Anything above this range could potentially trigger the upper time frames to correct as well, which will result in even bigger movement. Since we are looking at daily chart; I will use the recent low 1320+100 to arrive at 1420 before looking at a larger pullback. For now, every pull back on 4H to RSI 14 (30) is a buy.
Reply
DMS
4 months ago
Nice, how do you count your cycles? Thanks!
Reply
Neptun07 PRO
4 months ago
@chartwatchers, do you still See the 1300 until end of Week and Short für today?
Thank you
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO Neptun07
4 months ago
ARound 1345-50$ could be a good entry for one more short down to 1300$...
Reply
Neptun07 PRO
4 months ago
And then back to 1300? But not today anymore, probably :-(
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chartwatchers PRO Neptun07
4 months ago
Yes. Down to 1290-1320. I'm not going to set any target right now because smartmoney always screws these DCL targets. Last time I missed the ICL.
But this time I will know where we have to go long.
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mumuyang2 chartwatchers
4 months ago
is it possible that gold breaks 1347 directly and go bull?
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chartwatchers PRO mumuyang2
4 months ago
no
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Hamzahstocks
4 months ago
I'm confused. When should we enter long trades.
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Nightstar Hamzahstocks
4 months ago
When Gold prints a DCL @$1300 - give or take - is when you should reload and pull the trigger!
+1 Reply
Hamzahstocks Nightstar
4 months ago
so as of now short gold until then?
Reply
Nightstar Hamzahstocks
4 months ago
At your own risk.. Remember, this is a Bull market. Shorting a Bull that's gaining popularity is not as easy as it looks. A lot of people on this forum have lost tons of cash trying to time a short entry only to get stopped out!
+1 Reply
nahidik PRO
4 months ago
Nice chart I agree with a down move but I feel there may be one more move up before that happens.
Gold may glitter a bit longer before a HTF correction
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verlin03
4 months ago
dcl is dcl. gasoline glut is gasoline glut. central banks are central banks.
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USSRandolph verlin03
4 months ago
That was not helpful
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GDX second shoulder is forming, I hope. With target price around $28.
+2 Reply
Yeterday's final gold's open interest: 633,020 change -24,756.
+2 Reply
How is this possible that many major miners under-perform GDX by around 1.5% They +2-2.5% today. While GDX +3.7%.
+1 Reply
traderzaius pbartashevich
4 months ago
Smart money trying to dump.
+1 Reply
JesseL pbartashevich
4 months ago
Silver Miners like AG, HL. and EXK are a large component of GDXJ, and they are the ones inflating the price of GDXJ.
+2 Reply
JesseL JesseL
4 months ago
Silver miners are probably inflating GDX also.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
4 months ago
GDX will fall today
+1 Reply
rippy83 PRO
4 months ago
Whats DCL?
Reply
pbartashevich PRO rippy83
4 months ago
Daily Cycle Low price - happens every 20-26 days in commodities.
+2 Reply
xiiimik
4 months ago
It is wedge from my eyes.
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Food for thought. It looks like gold mining stocks were sold off by smart money. It happened in two waves 1) pre-brexit week, 2) this week. Does it make sense to sell for a short lived gold's pull back to $1300 or longer period of lower gold prices is coming? I think we will go to $1300 then push up one more leg up (third one after ICL) and then go into longer correction and next ICL.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
4 months ago
There should be 2 more daily cyles. (Altogether 3) We are finishing the first now.
+1 Reply
KhunHunSein chartwatchers
4 months ago
you are perfect, if the price break 1325 , can down more ?
Reply
bschafer
4 months ago
Great call
Reply
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