How Will Gold React After the FOMC Decision?

XAUUSD Technical Analysis (H1)

Based on the chart, price is recovering from a key support zone and has formed a Higher Low structure. However, it remains under pressure from the long-term descending trendline. The market is now approaching the confluence of the trendline and a key resistance zone, which is likely to determine the short-term direction.

Trend

* Short-term: Neutral with a bullish bias.
* Price continues to hold above the 4,049 – 4,015 support zone, suggesting that buying momentum is gradually strengthening.
* A confirmed breakout and H1/H4 candle close above the descending trendline is required to validate a bullish trend continuation.

Resistance Levels

🔵 4,085 – 4,092 – Immediate resistance, aligned with the descending trendline.

🔵 4,111 – The next resistance level if the breakout is confirmed.

🔵 4,135 – Major resistance and the target of the next bullish leg.

Support Levels

🟢 4,049 – Immediate support, acting as the retest zone following the recent recovery.

🟢 4,015 – Strong support and the base of the current Higher Low structure.

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Trading Scenarios

📈 Bullish Scenario: Price holds above 4,049, then breaks through the 4,085 – 4,092 resistance zone and confirms the breakout with an H1/H4 candle close. The next upside targets are 4,111 and 4,135.

📉 Bearish Scenario: If price is rejected at the descending trendline and falls below 4,049, it may retreat to test 4,015. A break below this support would signal the return of bearish pressure.

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Trading Plan

🟢 BUY GOLD

* Entry: 4,015 – 4,017
* Stop Loss: 4,005
* Take Profit: 200 / 500 / 1000 pips

🔴 SELL GOLD

* Entry: 4,092 – 4,094
* Stop Loss: 4,104
* Take Profit: 200 / 500 / 1000 pips

Risk Management

* Risk no more than 1–2% of your account equity per trade.
* Wait for a confirmed breakout or rejection signal before entering any position.
* Consider moving your Stop Loss to breakeven once the trade reaches a reasonable profit level to protect your capital and reduce risk.