Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is neutral: price in Kumo, but above 100WMA and future Senkou lines (forward Kumo). Chikou Span is above past candles. Some resistance ard 1225, but in fact the major bearish trendline seems to be broken! - Lower support now ard 1125-1140, marked by Senkou A and B lines (forward), Kijun Sen and also by the broken downtrend line. - Whenever Price breaks above 1230-1250, that will trigger a clear bullishstrategic reversal with weekly tgt at 1400. - Heikin-Ashi signal is bullish, but haDelta reaches extreme high lvl. Some consolidation is possible below resistance levels.
Daily: - Bullish Ichimoku setup - Price broke out of bearish channel. - Heikin-Ashi is bullish with very strong momentum, but haDelta crosses below SMA3 after reaching an extreme high print. We will likely see some consolidation, or maybe a pull back here. - Bullish supports: 1155 and 1135. I will look for buy signals ard support levels.
Strategy: HOLD LONGS! And try to add more if you see a pull back to supports! Why to sell something which is trending? If you sell your long, will you be able to buy it back lower? Will it pull back a lot lower or will it only consolidate with sideaway move before it continues bullish? Why to short something which has such a strong momentum? Because it looks "Overbought"? What is the criteria of being Overbought??? In fact people got used to extremely low volatility in Gold during last 1-2 years. They can't immagine a sudden rip of 25 %. Is that impossible? Sometimes things can also go UP vertically, not just collapse down....
Comments
A-shot
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But that is the question, where will it pull back to?;)
A-shot
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Weekly hit resistance. Whats your take?
Kumowizard
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ideal long entry would be 1175-1180.
I do not look at it in short term any more. Game has started to change with final and most idiot moves of central banks. If there will be risk off, Gold is a buy. If there will be inflation, Gold is a buy. The money people think is money, in fact is a fiat sht, ntg behind, can be inflated from one day to the other.
I think the end game will be very funny. As marginal effectiveness of Central Banks action is getting close to zero (e.g. BoJ, or Riksbank, but ECB will face same sht), and global debt continously increasing, what happens if Oil recovers a bit. What hapens if soft commodities recover as well? In that case there would be some minor inflation effect from cost side, but I think more importantly global inflation expectations would start rising. People will start to drop cash, and their mutual bond fund investments, and try to buy stg they believe could hold value.
A-shot
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What do you plan to hold in that case? Im not sure having everyhing in Gold is a good idea. How would you protect your assets?
Kumowizard
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I also have quite some real estate investments. Also holding CPI linked floater bonds. And diversify cash too... E.g. I hold NOK.
Diversification is the key.
A-shot
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I hear people diversify with NOK and/or hold in Norwegian bank. Also swiss - what is your take on that?
Kumowizard
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CHF I don't like. I don't think that is a good safe haven with such negative rates. Also Switzerland banking system will go through a very serious shrink (call it a crisis) in next 2-3 years, as their "safe haven" - "tax haven" - "confidential" status is over! Simply because of the automatic tax information exchange within Europe and with US being fully implemented from 2017.
The Swiss banking service is still extremely and unreasonably expensive.
On the other hand they have quite a nice industry besides banking.
Norway is as we discussed before. There the main problems are: mostly depending on Oil and Oil industry, the virtually existing C/A surplus (deriing from Oil sales) melts at Norges, so in fact the real C/A surplus is not that big.... maybe ex-oil it is already in deficit.
However at least there is some positive inflation, positive rates, no debt at all, not part of EU, their banking system is solid, Norges Bank is not as idiot (at least so far) as other central banks, and probably due to liquidity reasons a lot less people think about NOK as a possible haven to diversify into. So it is not a crowded idea... probably not yet even a followed idea :-)
I don't say to go fully into NOK, but as a real money investor 10-15-20 % of portfolio may be ok at these levels. Of course as speculation anyone can sell good size EURNOK leveraged, IF it gives a proper bearish signal.
A-shot
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Yes i agree. But lets take Oil, its on the lowest price. It can go lower, but it can go higher as well - this will play favourably for NOK (also lower is harder and harder to imagine as oil is still a widely used commodity). Then, Norway has high taxes and stable political/economical state (not to add difference between the current immigration issues that are faced in Sweden). But supposedly once Major currency gives up - you see it being EUR? or USD? And with that, i assume for you (and on my own) Norway Denmark are the one of those who would hold the hit a bit better should it start going down for all? Do you feel the same in general?