XAU/USD | War restarts and stops! - Lower price for Gold?

Jun 8

As you can see in the hourly chart of Gold, it has been on a bearish run for a while, going from 4475 on last week's Friday all the way to 4268 today, and it recovered a bit and is now being traded at 4320, below the June 8th NWOG Low.

Last night IRGC attacked Israel and today Israel did so as well, forcing Gold to drop a lot, but then after President Trump's request, it was stopped and then Gold started to move upwards. It is said that the IR and Israel Governments have stated that they won't attack each other as long as IRGC doesn't retaliate today's attack.

Currently, Gold is in a weird place, the negotiations have stopped and today this happened. The overall sentiment towards Gold bearish, but short-term upward moves can still happen.

Now, I don't expect Gold to go above the 4356 level and stabilize there, and I'm leaning towards downward movements towards 4252 and then 4200. If Gold doesn't stabilize above 4252, a drop towards 4200 and then 4100 will most likely happen. Should the negotiations end without any deal or the war restarts, it'll speed up Gold's fall towards 4100.

Jun 9

Trade active

As you can see in the hourly chart of Gold, after it reached 4268, it bounced back up and also had a sudden surge today, going as high as 4363, but after failing at stabilizing above the January 5th NWOG High as per previous analysis, it dropped massively, currently being traded at 4300.

I expect Gold to drop further below, with the first target being below the 4268 level to sweep the liquidity there and then go towards the 4252 and 4200 levels.
If it fails at staying above the 4200 level, further drop towards the 4099 level is very likely, to sweep the massive pool of sellside liquidity.

Jun 10

Trade closed: target reached

Hello folks, hope you are well.

As you can see in the hourly chart of Gold, it reached our 4200 target and has gone as low as 4130, but surged after the CPI news dropped, going as high as 4173. Now it's being traded at 4144.

Closest Supply Zone for Gold is currently at 4155-4178, and so far Gold has been rejected by it, going towards the 4100 very strongly.
I expect Gold to reach below 4099 to sweep the liquidity and then bounce back up.
However, if Gold fails at stabilizing above 4100, further drop towards 4000 and below is also expected!