XAUUSD (H4) — Wave 5 Down Isn’t Done Yet

Mar 12

Gold still hasn’t cleared the noise: wave 5 lower remains on the table, and the safest trigger is a break of the lower trendline

The market is in a difficult phase right now. Political tension and tariff pressure are pulling capital in different directions, the USD is seeing cross-currents, and gold is no longer behaving like a clean safe-haven asset. That is why price action looks noisy: wide swings, weak follow-through, and low confidence in each bounce.

For Kelly, this is not the kind of market to anticipate aggressively. This is the kind of market where structure has to lead.

Technical structure

On H4, gold is still compressed inside a larger structure with:

a descending trendline above acting as dynamic resistance

a rising trendline below acting as the last support line for the current recovery structure

The key point is that price has not produced a real bullish breakout. Every recovery leg is still getting capped below the descending trendline, and the projected path on the chart continues to support the idea that the market may still be completing a wave 5 decline.

There are three zones that matter most here:

Resistance / support-retest sell area around 5,126
This is the nearest pivot. If price cannot reclaim and hold above it, sellers are still controlling the short-term flow.

Buy scalping zone around 5,02x – 5,05x
This area can still produce a short-term bounce, but it is not enough on its own to confirm a larger reversal.

High liquidity zone around 4,90x
This is the deeper liquidity pocket, and the area Kelly sees as a realistic destination if wave 5 lower continues to play out.

In other words, the structure is not bullish enough yet to justify an aggressive long bias. The market may still owe one more push lower if the lower trendline gives way.

Kelly’s trade map

Kelly does not want to buy early just because price is sitting near support.
The reason is simple: when trend is unclear, support can easily turn into a trap.

So today’s map is straightforward:

If price continues to stay capped below 5,126 and below the descending trendline, the path still leans lower

If price breaks the rising lower trendline clearly, that becomes the safer confirmation that wave 5 lower is continuing

In that case, the next pull zones sit around 5,02x, then deeper toward 4,90x

Until the lower trendline actually breaks, the market is still technically inside compression, and any aggressive short taken too early can get snapped back.

Entry idea
Preferred scenario: wait for the lower trendline break, then sell confirmation

This is the safer Kelly setup.

Entry idea
Wait for a clear H4 break below the rising lower trendline, then watch for a failed pullback to confirm the short.

Execution concept

Sell after price breaks the lower trendline and retests it without reclaiming

Or sell if price keeps getting rejected clearly below 5,126

Stop loss
Above the nearest swing high or above the pullback rejection high after the breakdown.

Targets

TP1: 5,02x

TP2: 4,95x

TP3: 4,90x high liquidity zone

Secondary scenario: technical bounce first, then continuation lower

If price does not break the lower trendline immediately, gold may still produce a narrow technical rebound first.

In that case:

5,126 remains the key reference

if price fails to reclaim and hold above that area, the rebound should still be treated as a support/resistance retest before another leg lower

Kelly does not prefer buying here, because the reward-to-risk is less attractive than waiting for a confirmed breakdown structure.

Conclusion

Gold is no longer behaving like a one-directional safe-haven trade, which is why the structure has become much noisier. On H4, the more realistic path is that the market may still be working through wave 5 lower, but the safer way to engage is not to sell early — it is to wait for a break of the lower trendline and then confirm sell-side continuation.

Until that happens, every rebound should still be treated as a technical bounce inside a structure that remains vulnerable to another move lower.

Mar 12

Trade active

Today's scenario is unfolding exactly as predicted, wave 5 has been activated, the downward momentum is quite strong, so pay attention to your orders and limit buy signals.