What do we see in the chart above ? Ascending Pattern which usually breaks to downside, rarely it moves up. Check out My posts on AUDUSD and USDCAD you will know how this pattern worked in the past. For sample, I'm attaching Aussie, for usdcad post check in my public profile.
Above chart is not one time instance, I can show you more charts for this working in same manner breaking downside and moving up after the breakout. So Gold is expected to give the breakout before Fed meet & move below 1200's, with Fed rate hike ( 80% probability for rate hike) Markets will move in knee-jerk reaction with few session wicks going below 1175's barely kissing 1150;s or staying above during that time. After the dust settles down, Gold will move up as it will be considered as safe asset.
Now we will have a look at DXY ,
So in next 3 weeks DXY will reach 103's and will move down when Fed rate hike is announced. We knew Sell the News which is insync with the post. The upside move for rate hike is already factored in , so the reversal on cards.When it moves down again Gold is sought as safe asset for investment.
Apart from all these, We don't know clear picture of Trump's policies ( Economic especially), by Jan'17 we will get an idea what he is about to do, which will be definitely perceived as bad for Global economy because any change in stable policies is not accepted with cheer.
(a) Fed Rate hike - Corporate/Industries will find tough on investments & expansion - Avg or less than expected results
(b) Bonds will fall & people search for safe assets
(b) Corporate Cash flow in future gets reduced - stocks will move lower
(c) Stock markets won't be preferred investment
Need more proof, check this :
When US markets go down what will markets around the world will do ?? Go Down. I can show the same pattern in many scrips.
But these uncertainty around the markets are enough for markets to go down & What's the safe asset ?? Gold ! Investing in this precious metal, demand will go up and Gold prices will rise. Only if something real good happens for whole global economy it will remain below 1200's,else we will see 1360's level in Gold from 1175's.
Now you might have realized Why its multi-factor analysis.
I'm expecting your comments to discuss further, so feel free to comment your opinions...
I'm not sure about your point on china & ecb..kinda confused...