InsiderB
Long

Gold : Complete Analysis with Dollar, S&P500 Index

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   GOLD / US DOLLAR
20 days ago
Our long pending analysis and the most sought analysis is Gold             . True, people are worried at uncertain times and economic scenario's around them, so they want to analyse whether Gold             will be safe security for part of their investments. Before we go into analyzing the Xauusd             , Be clear about the fact we are building a case with our analysis considering various economic factors.While driving car we look at traffic, speed limit,weather (Fog or rain) etc not just the destination. So we are analyzing with Global scenario's,News Events, Fed rate hikes & more.

What do we see in the chart above ? Broadening Wedge Ascending Pattern which usually breaks to downside, rarely it moves up. Check out My posts on AUDUSD             and USDCAD             you will know how this pattern worked in the past. For sample, I'm attaching Aussie, for usdcad             post check in my public profile.
Long AUDUSD : Trading within Broadening wedge & Trendlines


Above chart is not one time instance, I can show you more charts for this broadening wedge working in same manner breaking downside and moving up after the breakout. So Gold             is expected to give the breakout before Fed meet & move below 1200's, with Fed rate hike ( 80% probability for rate hike) Markets will move in knee-jerk reaction with few session wicks going below 1175's barely kissing 1150;s or staying above during that time. After the dust settles down, Gold             will move up as it will be considered as safe asset.

Now we will have a look at DXY             ,
snapshot


So in next 3 weeks DXY             will reach 103's and will move down when Fed rate hike is announced. We knew Sell the News which is insync with the post. The upside move for rate hike is already factored in , so the reversal on cards.When it moves down again Gold             is sought as safe asset for investment.

Apart from all these, We don't know clear picture of Trump's policies ( Economic especially), by Jan'17 we will get an idea what he is about to do, which will be definitely perceived as bad for Global economy because any change in stable policies is not accepted with cheer.

(a) Fed Rate hike - Corporate/Industries will find tough on investments & expansion - Avg or less than expected results
(b) Bonds will fall & people search for safe assets
(b) Corporate Cash flow in future gets reduced - stocks will move lower
(c) Stock markets won't be preferred investment

Need more proof, check this :
snapshot


When US markets go down what will markets around the world will do ?? Go Down. I can show the same pattern in many scrips.

But these uncertainty around the markets are enough for markets to go down & What's the safe asset ?? Gold             ! Investing in this precious metal, demand will go up and Gold             prices will rise. Only if something real good happens for whole global economy it will remain below 1200's,else we will see 1360's level in Gold             from 1175's.
Now you might have realized Why its multi-factor analysis.

I'm expecting your comments to discuss further, so feel free to comment your opinions...
16 days ago
Comment: Gold moving down as predicted, Game On Guys !

*** With Great Power, there comes Great Responsibility ***
DigitalNomad
20 days ago
Appreciate the work , nice detailed post
+2 Reply
InsiderB DigitalNomad
20 days ago
@DigitalNomad, Thank you !
+1 Reply
DigitalNomad
20 days ago
How can you be sure it will fall and rise up ?
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InsiderB DigitalNomad
20 days ago
@DigitalNomad, Only on fed interest rate hike scenario , uncertainty sets in & with a bounce from 1175's level we will move up. Probably we can range for few days around 1190's to 1210's n move up, its just one of the possibilities and we are ready beforehand if that happens.
+1 Reply
DigitalNomad InsiderB
20 days ago
dollar, sp500 all in bearish tone. Yellen & trump make that work
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InsiderB DigitalNomad
20 days ago
@DigitalNomad, ha ha probably true :)
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InsiderB DigitalNomad
20 days ago
@DigitalNomad,Just for info, Its not trade setup, its view for investors !
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Calamity DigitalNomad
19 days ago
@DigitalNomad, sp 500 didnt
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sbrudermann
20 days ago
thank you for your detailed analyisis. what IF there will be no rate hike (which seems pretty likely to me, bec. of global debt, esp. US), and markets start to appreciate trumps policy (where is crisis and usd weakness?). additionaly it seems that gold isnt cheap enough yet for someone (china, ecb).
Reply
InsiderB sbrudermann
20 days ago
@sbrudermann, The other side of the coin, sure bcos of the scenario's stated by you Feds can postpone the rate hike ( giving surprises there hobby ) and if market appreciates trump policy we will see gold around 1050's for sure, No doubt in that. But breaking 1050's will depend on other global factors.

I'm not sure about your point on china & ecb..kinda confused...
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PHL
20 days ago
great analysis and scenarios! I am looking for a long opportunity and I found a pattern that might support your scenarios:
XAUUSD Gold massive bullish cypher pattern on daily chart
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InsiderB PHL
20 days ago
@PHL, Yeah that potential harmonic pattern if gets completed , we are good & in for treat :)
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Rate Hike fear is already priced in charts, and gold next destiny is to met atleast 1383. Take care.
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InsiderB TPparadigma
19 days ago
@TPparadigma, Exactly.. I'm targeting around 1360's just with false break below 1200's ( Good zone to accumulate )
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Angry
19 days ago
Gold broke the support already, no signs to re-bounce. Strong USD persist, I bet the opposite!
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InsiderB Angry
19 days ago
@Angry, That's fine, lets watch what happens in future. We are just traders who trade Bull n Bears. Thanks for your comment !
+1 Reply
Ching25
19 days ago
So are you saying that possibly it will go 1175 and bounce above 1300? I need to know as i am on a buy trade please. Im expecting a bounce after 1200
Reply
InsiderB Ching25
19 days ago
@Ching25, Yes the same. We can see a down break till 1175's ( buffer zone for fed rate hike volatility 1150's not more than that ) then we will see 1360's in future but that will be with pullbacks. Check with your trade plan before taking the trade :)
Reply
Ching25 InsiderB
19 days ago
@InsiderB, ok thank you. I guess il cut buy stick to sell till 1800 and when i notice the bounce towards 1300 il take buy
+1 Reply
InsiderB Ching25
19 days ago
@Ching25, Thats cool looks for trade setups in lower timeframes I will post out if I get any , I guess its 1180's instead of 1800,right ?
Reply
Ching25 InsiderB
16 days ago
@InsiderB, my friend you are a genius. I am thinking of going buy after 1275 hits
+1 Reply
Ching25 InsiderB
16 days ago
@InsiderB, i mean 1175
Reply
InsiderB Ching25
16 days ago
@Ching25, Thanks Buddy, Enter long positions only after Bullish signal on daily timeframe near 1175;s ( remember we have buffer zone till 1150's) .
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Ching25 InsiderB
16 days ago
@InsiderB, if you dont mind please give me heads up if your free
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InsiderB Ching25
16 days ago
@Ching25, Yeah, I will be updating the post but risk is yours buddy , so its better to confirm with your trade plan once before taking trade decisions.
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nirav5 PRO
16 days ago
There it breached 1200.
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InsiderB nirav5
16 days ago
@nirav5, Enjoy :)
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nirav5 PRO InsiderB
16 days ago
@InsiderB, Thanks to you I am not in a panic zone.
+1 Reply
AMBRISH
16 days ago
Quite Interesting comparison of USA rate hike/Gold/ DXY, Our market are exactly in opposite direction . we are waiting for RBI Dec.Policy expecting rate cut of 100 points.

Thank you .
Reply
InsiderB AMBRISH
15 days ago
@AMBRISH, Boss when others fall, the King rises up as R3 said. Don't worry our markets are pretty cool.
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Ching25 InsiderB
15 days ago
@InsiderB, Do you reckon it is heading towards 1300 now or after NFP next week?
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InsiderB Ching25
15 days ago
@Ching25, stay cool, No hurries. Lets see what happens at 1175's, patience is the key here.
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Ching25 InsiderB
15 days ago
@InsiderB, ok il wait lets see. I dont want it to go down anymore hopefully
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shawn.ctech
11 days ago
It hit your target. what are you thinking now? i only see a healthy consolidation im not too sure about a V shape recovery yet.
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InsiderB shawn.ctech
11 days ago
@shawn.ctech, Gold will remain below 1200's / 1220's in coming days, after Fed meet we will get better view on Gold. Its not V shape recovery I expect, its drawn for illustration purpose only
Reply
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