Gold : Complete Analysis with Dollar, S&P500 Index

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Our long pending analysis and the most sought analysis is Gold . True, people are worried at uncertain times and economic scenario's around them, so they want to analyse whether Gold will be safe security for part of their investments. Before we go into analyzing the Xauusd , Be clear about the fact we are building a case with our analysis considering various economic factors.While driving car we look at traffic, speed limit,weather (Fog or rain) etc not just the destination. So we are analyzing with Global scenario's,News Events, Fed rate hikes & more.

What do we see in the chart above ? Broadening Wedge Ascending Pattern which usually breaks to downside, rarely it moves up. Check out My posts on AUDUSD and USDCAD you will know how this pattern worked in the past. For sample, I'm attaching Aussie, for usdcad post check in my public profile.

Above chart is not one time instance, I can show you more charts for this broadening wedge working in same manner breaking downside and moving up after the breakout. So Gold is expected to give the breakout before Fed meet & move below 1200's, with Fed rate hike ( 80% probability for rate hike) Markets will move in knee-jerk reaction with few session wicks going below 1175's barely kissing 1150;s or staying above during that time. After the dust settles down, Gold will move up as it will be considered as safe asset.

Now we will have a look at DXY ,

So in next 3 weeks DXY will reach 103's and will move down when Fed rate hike is announced. We knew Sell the News which is insync with the post. The upside move for rate hike is already factored in , so the reversal on cards.When it moves down again Gold is sought as safe asset for investment.

Apart from all these, We don't know clear picture of Trump's policies ( Economic especially), by Jan'17 we will get an idea what he is about to do, which will be definitely perceived as bad for Global economy because any change in stable policies is not accepted with cheer.

(a) Fed Rate hike - Corporate/Industries will find tough on investments & expansion - Avg or less than expected results
(b) Bonds will fall & people search for safe assets
(b) Corporate Cash flow in future gets reduced - stocks will move lower
(c) Stock markets won't be preferred investment

Need more proof, check this :

When US markets go down what will markets around the world will do ?? Go Down. I can show the same pattern in many scrips.

But these uncertainty around the markets are enough for markets to go down & What's the safe asset ?? Gold ! Investing in this precious metal, demand will go up and Gold prices will rise. Only if something real good happens for whole global economy it will remain below 1200's,else we will see 1360's level in Gold from 1175's.
Now you might have realized Why its multi-factor analysis.

I'm expecting your comments to discuss further, so feel free to comment your opinions...
Nov 23
Comment: Gold moving down as predicted, Game On Guys !
Dec 15
Comment: This setup is invalid now, as we are looking at 1050's on long term
It hit your target. what are you thinking now? i only see a healthy consolidation im not too sure about a V shape recovery yet.
InsiderB shawn.ctech
@shawn.ctech, Gold will remain below 1200's / 1220's in coming days, after Fed meet we will get better view on Gold. Its not V shape recovery I expect, its drawn for illustration purpose only
@InsiderB, here is my view!
Quite Interesting comparison of USA rate hike/Gold/ DXY, Our market are exactly in opposite direction . we are waiting for RBI Dec.Policy expecting rate cut of 100 points.

Thank you .
@AMBRISH, Boss when others fall, the King rises up as R3 said. Don't worry our markets are pretty cool.
Ching25 InsiderB
@InsiderB, Do you reckon it is heading towards 1300 now or after NFP next week?
InsiderB Ching25
@Ching25, stay cool, No hurries. Lets see what happens at 1175's, patience is the key here.
Ching25 InsiderB
@InsiderB, ok il wait lets see. I dont want it to go down anymore hopefully
There it breached 1200.
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