So I am having a hard time reading the Jnug chart right now. Aside from the extremely oversold RSI, the positive action today for Jnug, despite weakness in gold, suggests a pop may have begun today. But I thought maybe the regular gold chart might help me get a couple of ideas about Jnug price action in the short term. I am assuming that we are going to get a bounce from the French elections this weekend. So I threw up a Fib measurement to get an idea. With Macron most likely winning the election the bounce should be small. I am targeting the 50% Fib retracement into the 1250's range. There is also a ton of resistance and moving averages in this area. The only thing that I think could get gold to break through at this point would be a La Pen victory. If she were to win, then I would think that gold would retest the long term downtrend line that we have not been able to break, somewhere in the 1280's. But I think the 1250's is more reasonable. That being said, the Jnug bounce should also be somewhat short lived as well. I am at least thinking we can fill the next couple of gaps aside from the one we are at right now. So I am at least targeting the $22.15 spot which would also possibly coincide with the dropping 50 DMA. That would equal a 62% positive move for Jnug from the recent lows. To reach the upper edge of the channel seems to be too far away with a short term pop in gold. I just don't quite see it right now. But once gold itself starts to really drop into its ICL, Jnug will probably also drop hard right back down to the single digits. Since I am anticipating that gold will drop until the 2nd week of Jnue with a possible rate hike, I am saying that gold will drop to the bottom of that blue wedge at around the 1163 - 1170 range. We should get a much better bounce at that time but then after that, I predict the real bad bloodbath will begin until the winter of next year. I think Ill put up the GDXJ and Jnug charts next to assist.
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GDXJ Chart
I have a feeling that we are going to get an island reversal. But it will amount to very little IMO. With a short term pop in gold, I think GDXJ looks like it could reach the $32.75 range which would coincide with the falling 20 DMA. Ill set a stop lose to protect any profits at that point. Anything higher than that will be welcomed. But as you can see in the next Jnug chart, if GDXJ stops at that $32.75 range, Jnug should match.
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Jnug Chart
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I gotta say.....I sure dont hear anyone shouting breakout anymore!
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With gold taking another dump today and Jnug not following, that is positive for Jnug. Today is the last day for this COT report. I was hoping that this move for Jnug was going to start a few days ago but that did not happen. No Crystal ball for me. Gold itself has or is reaching a medium term trend line and will most likely not break through it the first time. I think this is a good place for the bounce for gold. And if Jnug and gold go it the same direction, then the move could be pretty big. My Jnug chart shows my two thoughts on the possible upcoming move for Jnug. The red is a more conservative idea. But the blue is possible. I tried to clean up my charts of all the multiple horizontal line and just replace them with large red shaded areas to show the major resistance/support areas. Obviously we are stuck just below a strong one.
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Jnug update Inflation ticked higher which is why we finally got a bounce started in gold. And this helped Jnug a lot today. I am really looking forward to tomorrow. I believe that we will get a very good push as it appears we are already in a micro wave 3. I am still leaning for only the blue arrows up.
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gold chart update We need the right kind of economic data for gold to push through not only the 100 DMA but also the dropping 10 DMA. An since we are due for this bounce, I believe the data will be just right. But this bounce will be short lived. We start to roll over by middle of next week and will drop into a ICL bottom by June 14th ish. And I am still holding that gold will reach 1163 - 1165 range before bouncing hard again. Ok, maybe 1170.
Your charting is looking good man. I had some thoughts on why you were off previously. There is a video on YouTube called GPXJ massacre were they were explaining the sell off was greater than it should have because GPXJ had to liquidate very large positions. as they were liquidating the stock prices dramatically fell. I believe with the strength we are seeing we could be seeing the opposite happening. I'm just hypothesizing but it seems to jive with the price movements.
SalN
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Yeah, thats what I was thinking but now I have to figure out where we are in this cycle now that everything got messed up.@dsankie21,
larry47
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Island reversal indeed
bingwu
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Hi @SalN What the price target do you think we can get into Jnug? As the miners are getting strong and gold supposed to up.
SalN
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Look at the chart. Follow the red and blue arrows up. I stopped them at the approximate price target. @bingwu,
dsankie21
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So true, not too many established analysts predicting a major breakout. It's such a difficult chart to predict because a huge element is psychological. Are the elections really factored in for gold? Even if Macon wins does it ease concern enough where people pull money out right away? It's possible we see downside immediately On Monday. its a tough call. Either way, you are doing a great job charting. I think once we get back to normal, it should follow trends like its supposed to. I will wait for confirmation. It should be pretty clear come Monday.
Matce
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Any estimates for timing? Do you think the pop for JNUG will happen Monday? from 15 to 22 ? That would be quite a feat... 50% in a day....?