I think Breakdown can happen if Feds raise rates on the 21, Otherwise I see a huge upside on Gold if feds decide no hike for Sept and October. Next Fed meet is in Dec. Gold has two months of Bull run if from Sept 21.
Why do you say that? If the Fed raises rates, wouldn't that be a sign of a stronger economy? Wouldn't the dollar rally and gold decline? Honestly, I don't believe the Fed will raise rates though. They can't. The government can't service the debt at a higher rate, and productivity/GDP isn't really that strong. Neither is the job market. All of the pension funds, and institutional investors will also take a huge hit for holding bonds. Those assets would take a huge loss. The Fed would cripple the economy. Plus, I don't think the economy is that strong to the point where they can raise the rates. They just push forward guidance to move the market with their words. I think we will actually see more QE4; which means the stocks will rally. But QE4 won't happen until after the election. I suspect the dollar will drop and gold will rally at that point, and then as before the dollar will rally as people see that the stock market is still rallying and gold will sell off again.