staurum

13 June 2016 (notes)

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
36 0 0
9:30am:
Carrying forward from the weekly note, in the weekly gold             is looking good to rebreathe up with the support of the turning indicators. We just hope Momentum will keep this up (i.e. not closing below 1255 + close above 1280). The challenge, though, is to pass the FOMC earthquake safely. (Weekly range: 120x to 130x/131x)

Daily: Momentum has picked up a beat, but still lacking. A good trader told me once, there is an anomaly, in that after a good closing on Friday, Asia is usually "dishoarding" (by taking profit action) to act as if it is resisting but spring board off higher later, then gold             may poke higher just as the early Europeans join the market. (Intraday Pivot is at 1272.3, and it bounced from there). (Daily range: 124x - 129x)

The worry though (as momentum is still lacking), indicators have started to show weariness of the bull . The solution is a simple close above 128x, hopefully momentum can bring it there. If not, (let alone close below 1274), the indicators will "start" (still need to be confirmed) to look good to bring it down.

Intraday: The good news is morning open managed to beat the last high. Pivot at 1272.3 not broken yet, so it s a relief (for a few hours only). Hourly touch and close below 1270 may bleed the bulls, and may open the effects of O-bought-ness + divergence (which have been held up quite nicely for a few days). (Intraday range: 126x - 128x)
Comment: Intraday 3PM: Congratulations, some people just spanked gold trying to hit a homerun. but stoped at 1284. It can continue the bullish game, with the help of intraday momentum that's picking up. the indicators are in the peak areas and hitting the ceiling. Maybe it s a good time to take a break and continue later when NY joins the game. The daily indicators are flying high and some are pushed to the ceiling.

1276/1277 is now the temporary floor.
Comment: Intraday 10pm:
Is this a classic example of how London and NY traders do not take each other very well, like cat & mouse fight? One thing we can see here, NY dont like to follow others and would rather create their own path before resuming their true intent.
One hourly bearish engulfing candle should be enough to scare off the bulls. Indicators are in harmony singing "correction" song at the moment, first 1278 break, second 1275 break, will it break Pivot at 1272? The song can stop if somehow hourly can manage to close above 1283 for now.
Comment: Come to think of it, it is rare to see how gold and dxy couple together. are they having an affair? what happened to gold - EU? oh that s right, they are divorced for the moment. maybe until EU divorced with brexit issue, it will come and get gold back.

Daily close have to be above 1275 (preferrably 1278), or else. the daily indicators will start to look like a dragon head.
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