2lalit
Long

A Flashback Of The Twins

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
264 0 5
Will they continue to hold or decide to sell their gold             as it did in 2008 and price will fall to around $1,000 ?

Is it true that the message conveyed by The Youngest, that based on its shorter posture and smaller than The Oldest, there will be a change in trend ?.

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Overall, gold             has moved for 3 years in a Bear Market, starts on September 5, 2011, until the date of October 6, 2014, which in that time until today, gold             continues haunted by negative fundamental news.

All of us had know and can’t refused that the point of $1,180 is the Bottom # 1, where prices dropped sharply from $1,795 up to $1,180 and bounced up to $1,434 and by the time simultaneously has made the Bear Market is formed. In my version, probably from this point is the beginning of a story that gold             forecasted will fall up to about $1,000 (http://my.jetscreenshot.com/21013/20140909-osur-110kb).

On December 30, 2013, for the first time the Bottom #1 had got a back test and then bouncing from $1,178 up to $1,392. From this point, I assume that price had been rejected to move below $1,180 and the Oldest has failed to find the next lower within 1 year period of time to seek the next lower in Bear Market (Jun 28, 2013 till Jun 28, 2014).

I did a comparison of the decline that occurred in 2008, where the decline is only occurred 45% ($682.41) approaching 50% of retracement, so in my opinion the decline that occurred in 2013 ($1,178 at Bottom # 2) , almost reflecting the decline that occurred in 2008.

GOLD             RETRACEMENT 2008.
((2008 High - (2008 High - 1999 Low) * 45%) = (($1032.7 - ($1032.7 - $251.95)) * 45%) = $681.36 (actual low in 2008 was recorded at $682.41, were slightly above $681.36).

GOLD             RETRACEMENT 2011.
((2011 High - ((2011 High - 1999 Low) * 45% = (($1920.80 - $251.95) * 45%) = $1169.82 (actual low of 2013 was recorded at $1178.86, is slightly above $1169.82)

In the other hand, the Bottom #2 at $1178 also approached the calculation of Golden Ratio 1.62.

GOLDEN RATIO
(2012 High - 2013 Low) : (2011 High - 2011 Low) = ($ 1795.80 - $ 1178.86) : ($ 1,920.80 - $ 1,522.50) = $616.94 : $398.30 = 1.55 ~ 1.6 get near to 1.62 Golden Ratio.

Last, I assume again that the period of time required by The Oldest to seek the next lower in a Bull Market is 2 years (October 01, 2012 till October 06, 2014), and the Low price was recorded in $1,182 slightly above $1,180/$1,178 and price has bounced from $1,182 up to $1,255, and then make a point of $1,182 tends to act as the Bottom #3.

Let's say I was wrong in giving a reference point, that The Oldest began to look for the next lower started from the date of October 1, 2012. Now… , based on a tendency of Triple Bottom, there is only one possibility of a bull market, which began on October 6, 2014.

Now look carefully the price movement after The Youngest had a shorter posture and smaller and compare with the information which contained in "The Inside Information Of The Youngest", everything is almost close (https://www.tradingview.com/v/voO8bYmT/).

BUT…, WOULD THIS REALLY BE A TRIPLE BOTTOM & TREND CHANGE ?

THE TIME WILL SHOW


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