Gold M30 Trendline Breakdown — Retest Pivot Before Deep Liquidit

Aug 13

Market Overview
• Macro Driver: Following yesterday's softer US CPI print that pushed Gold above the $4,400 mark, market participants are locking in short-term profits ahead of tonight's high-impact US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Jobless Claims data.
• Smart Money Flow: Institutional order flow has executed an intraday structural pivot, liquidating late buyers at the Weak High (4,449.919) and shifting price action into a corrective markdown phase.

Technical Context
• Structure: Bearish Shift on M30. Price has decisively snapped the long-standing Ascending Trendline, producing sequential CHoCH and BOS confirmation.
• Liquidity & Imbalance: The impulsive displacement downwards has left an unmitigated Breakout Retest Pivot above, while the sell-side algorithm is actively drawn toward unmitigated discount demand pools and the Strong Low floor.

3. Key Zones
• Weak High (Macro Resistance): 4,449.919
• Breakout Retest Pivot (Supply Array): 4,385.000 - 4,395.000
• Immediate Demand Zone: 4,360.000 - 4,368.000
• Structural Floor (Strong Low): 4,357.061
• Ultimate OB Zone Base: 4,320.000 - 4,327.000

Trading Plan (IF–THEN)
• IF price delivers a corrective pullback into the Breakout Retest Pivot (4,385 - 4,395) AND validates lower-timeframe (M3/M5) bearish displacement -> THEN look to execute Short positions targeting 4,360.000, expanding down to sweep the Strong Low at 4,357.061 and 4,320.000.
• IF price reclaims and establishes a decisive M30 candle close above 4,420.000 -> THEN the immediate bearish retest scenario is invalidated, resetting the structure back to macro consolidation.

MMFLOW View
• Bias: Bearish Continuation on Pullback. Do not chase the breakdown at current market levels. Our edge lies in waiting for price to mitigate the retest pivot before riding the institutional expansion down to sweep the lower liquidity floor.

What is your bias ahead of the US PPI release? Breakdown or Rebound?

Aug 13

Trade active

+374 PIP

Aug 14

Trade closed: target reached

+935 pips – Full Take Profit
Lower-than-expected PPI data pushed the gold price to retest the 440x zone and continue its decline as planned, driven by a very clear divergence on the H4 timeframe.