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Short

GOLD - BREAK OUT OF TRIANGLE PATTERN

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
Gold             has been trading within range market, a symmetric triangle pattern to be exact. Elliot Wave theory says a triangle is overlapping five waves affair that subdivides 3-3-3-3-3. The chart shows how I draw those five waves pattern in the triangle. Wave 'e' seemed to end with a shooting star candle, which shows rejection from the resistance area 1355-1360. Gold             has tried that zone 3 times but failed. If the five wave pattern unfolds exactly as shown above, gold             will likely to move lower and break the support trend line .
Many people would wait for a break out to trade. But as I mentioned above, accordingly to Elliot Wave plus a shooting star candle appeared on the downtrend line, I would want to short this market with a tight stop loss. Once gold             breaks out to the downside, it will go quickly to the support around 1310.
Otherwise a daily close above 1350 would confirm a break out to the upside. That's where I want to put my stop loss.

Trade Plan:
- Sell 1 contract at $1346/oz.
- Stop loss above 1350 (on a daily close).
- Take profit 1310.

Stay Tuned.
Trade closed manually: Gold seemed to break out to the upside instead of downside. I have decided to close my trade at 1352 for a small loss.
snapshot
Trade active: I have decided to re-enter my short at 1338 based due to a break out of the triangle as chart below. Stop loss 1348. Take profit 1310.
snapshot
it was good analysis but using the rule of closed above/below would be better; sometimes/often the markets make some exhausts but in facts, there was rejection. Keep going your good works!
+1 Reply
Totally agree that using the rule of closed above/below would be a safer choice as I also mentioned in the post too. That you would place a trade once the direction is clear. However, the purpose here was trying to use Elliot Wave to predict the trend so I wanted to be a bit riskier. Thanks for your opinion.
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Thank you for the update!
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