Week ending 17 June 2016

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
24 0
Weekly indicators look better as another strong weekly candle is printed. Momentum has gone back to a good fuel level to burn some engine to drive positively further. Weekly PSAR now changed to 1199.
Thursday daily pin-bar gave a huge rejection but Friday, being the most important day of the week, managed to close near 1300. Daily PSAR is at 1268.50 and will be higher at Monday opening. It is in danger of being challenged if gold slams to 128x level again.
My view from last week remains: few days ahead up to BREXIT, high volatility is expected. Price has already priced-in 'no rate hike' scenario, and will follow to price in 'what if brexit comes true' scenario, following which if brexit doesnot happen, we might see a huge reversal like the NFP.

A reminder to myself: Let the market tells us what to do. Never try to outguess the next move. Throwing money at a casino is much better than trying to pick tops and bottoms. However, always keep a balanced, neutral view of the market and pick a strategic spot that in case we are proven wrong, we can retreat or switch side easily. Do not count on what a better situation might be, instead price in and hedge what market fears as the moment is ticking along.

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