Gold: 65% Chance of 1515+ By End of Tomorrow
In history, after sharp corrections and oversold Gold (lesser extent for Silver but similar idea), is that we often see a retrace to the value before the corrective value within 24-48 hours.
In this case we could get close to 1520+ tomorrow (minimum 1510-1515), as Gold plummeted on the daily to as low as 21-22 RSI. While I am not a fan of RSI in general as it is grossly oversimplified, it is useful for vast differences on the overall trendline.
For those who are shorting, I would caution you to END your shorts, as Gold has failed to break 1484 which is now proven as a new low (but a drastically higher low compared to the last corrective low at 1402). As I am writing this, we have now re-tested 1495+ and the trend is now bull especially if we hold 1500.
Over the next two weeks look for some geopolitical/political headwind to take Gold to 1550-1560 then eventually off to 1600 over the next 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 weeks AFTER we hit 1550.
One must keep in mind three additional facts:
1) Given the strong gains in the US indices, the treasuries failed to make significant ground.
2) Given the halt (temporarily, at-least) in US tariffs on China, Asian gains are very muted. Normally with news like this, the Hang should gain 2% or more.
3) Watch for the possibility of China to not discuss trade in September with the USA, resulting in tariffs being threatened once again and all US indices giving back recent gains.
One must also keep in mind (very important):
A) Once the 2YR goes above the 10YR treasury in the US there will be a massive algo sell-off and that will likely be the driving force to take Gold over 1600 and Silver over 18 whenever that happens - watch the timing!
- zSplit
In this case we could get close to 1520+ tomorrow (minimum 1510-1515), as Gold plummeted on the daily to as low as 21-22 RSI. While I am not a fan of RSI in general as it is grossly oversimplified, it is useful for vast differences on the overall trendline.
For those who are shorting, I would caution you to END your shorts, as Gold has failed to break 1484 which is now proven as a new low (but a drastically higher low compared to the last corrective low at 1402). As I am writing this, we have now re-tested 1495+ and the trend is now bull especially if we hold 1500.
Over the next two weeks look for some geopolitical/political headwind to take Gold to 1550-1560 then eventually off to 1600 over the next 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 weeks AFTER we hit 1550.
One must keep in mind three additional facts:
1) Given the strong gains in the US indices, the treasuries failed to make significant ground.
2) Given the halt (temporarily, at-least) in US tariffs on China, Asian gains are very muted. Normally with news like this, the Hang should gain 2% or more.
3) Watch for the possibility of China to not discuss trade in September with the USA, resulting in tariffs being threatened once again and all US indices giving back recent gains.
One must also keep in mind (very important):
A) Once the 2YR goes above the 10YR treasury in the US there will be a massive algo sell-off and that will likely be the driving force to take Gold over 1600 and Silver over 18 whenever that happens - watch the timing!
- zSplit
