Gold is currently trading around 4645 and the H1 chart remains clearly bullish with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows developing from the 4320-4330 base. Price has respected the rising channel throughout the latest impulsive move breaking through 4497, 4535, 4600 and now approaching the upper channel boundary around 4659-4680. This area is particularly important because it combines the recent high psychological resistance and the upper portion of the ascending structure. The broader fundamental backdrop is also supportive, gold has reached a three-month high amid dollar weakness, Treasury-market concerns and expectations surrounding upcoming US inflation data.
From a technical perspective however chasing longs at the current price carries increased risk because the market has already made a strong one-sided move and is trading close to the top of the H1 channel. The candles around 4640-4660 are beginning to show consolidation rather than the same clean expansion seen during the earlier part of the rally. This does not mean the bullish trend has reversed rather, it suggests that the market may need either a breakout to establish a new leg higher or a corrective retracement to rebalance before continuation. Other current technical analysis also identifies the 4,650–4,660 region as immediate resistance, while maintaining a bullish structure as long as key lower supports remain intact.
If H1/H4 candles push above this region and hold above it with strong closes the bearish correction scenario becomes invalid and the next upside expansion can target approximately 4720-4770 with the 4770 region being particularly important as the next major resistance area. A sustained breakout would also confirm that buyers are successfully breaking out of the current channel resistance rather than simply testing it.
For the downside the first important retracement area is 4535-4497 which corresponds with the previous breakout region and the Fibonacci levels visible on the chart. Below that 4459-4420 becomes the next major support cluster and is much more important structurally because it sits around the previous consolidation-support area and the lower side of the broader bullish structure. A deeper correction toward 4350-4320 would still be possible without completely destroying the larger bullish setup provided buyers defend that region.
Overall bias: bullish above 4497 but price is currently in a premium/resistance area. I would avoid chasing longs directly into 4659-4680. The cleaner setups are either a confirmed breakout and retest above resistance for continuation or a rejection from that zone followed by a pullback into 4535-4497, 4459-4420 for a potential bullish continuation setup. This keeps the larger bullish structure intact while allowing the market to prove whether 4659-4680 is going to become a breakout zone or the starting point of the next correction.
Trade Plan - Sell Setup
Sell Zone: 4659-4680
Sell Trigger: H1-H4 bearish rejection, bearish engulfing, or failure to sustain above 4659
Targets: 4535, 4497, 4459, 4420, 4350
Invalidation: H4 close above 4680. A sustained breakout above this level would strengthen the bullish trend and could open the door toward 4720-4770.
Trade Plan - Buy Setup
Buy Zone: 4420-4459
Buy Trigger: H1-H4 bullish rejection or bullish engulfing from the support zone
Targets: 4497, 4535, 4590, 4659, 4680
Invalidation: H4 close below 4420. A sustained break below this level would weaken the current bullish structure and could expose 4350-4300.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
From a technical perspective however chasing longs at the current price carries increased risk because the market has already made a strong one-sided move and is trading close to the top of the H1 channel. The candles around 4640-4660 are beginning to show consolidation rather than the same clean expansion seen during the earlier part of the rally. This does not mean the bullish trend has reversed rather, it suggests that the market may need either a breakout to establish a new leg higher or a corrective retracement to rebalance before continuation. Other current technical analysis also identifies the 4,650–4,660 region as immediate resistance, while maintaining a bullish structure as long as key lower supports remain intact.
If H1/H4 candles push above this region and hold above it with strong closes the bearish correction scenario becomes invalid and the next upside expansion can target approximately 4720-4770 with the 4770 region being particularly important as the next major resistance area. A sustained breakout would also confirm that buyers are successfully breaking out of the current channel resistance rather than simply testing it.
For the downside the first important retracement area is 4535-4497 which corresponds with the previous breakout region and the Fibonacci levels visible on the chart. Below that 4459-4420 becomes the next major support cluster and is much more important structurally because it sits around the previous consolidation-support area and the lower side of the broader bullish structure. A deeper correction toward 4350-4320 would still be possible without completely destroying the larger bullish setup provided buyers defend that region.
Overall bias: bullish above 4497 but price is currently in a premium/resistance area. I would avoid chasing longs directly into 4659-4680. The cleaner setups are either a confirmed breakout and retest above resistance for continuation or a rejection from that zone followed by a pullback into 4535-4497, 4459-4420 for a potential bullish continuation setup. This keeps the larger bullish structure intact while allowing the market to prove whether 4659-4680 is going to become a breakout zone or the starting point of the next correction.
Trade Plan - Sell Setup
Sell Zone: 4659-4680
Sell Trigger: H1-H4 bearish rejection, bearish engulfing, or failure to sustain above 4659
Targets: 4535, 4497, 4459, 4420, 4350
Invalidation: H4 close above 4680. A sustained breakout above this level would strengthen the bullish trend and could open the door toward 4720-4770.
Trade Plan - Buy Setup
Buy Zone: 4420-4459
Buy Trigger: H1-H4 bullish rejection or bullish engulfing from the support zone
Targets: 4497, 4535, 4590, 4659, 4680
Invalidation: H4 close below 4420. A sustained break below this level would weaken the current bullish structure and could expose 4350-4300.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
Trade active
Gold facing strong resistance around the recent highs and showing potential for a pullback if the 4660-4680 area continues to hold. The sell setup remains active as long as gold stays below the 4680-4700 resistance zone. Gold has rejected the recent highs and a move below 4600 could increase bearish momentum toward 4535-4497 with 4425 as a deeper support target. However, a strong H1-H4 close above 4700 would weaken the bearish scenario. Gold is currently pulling back after testing a three-month high so confirmation around these levels remains important.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 4660-4680, 4700
Support: 4600, 4535-4497, 4425
Trade closed: target reached
Target achieved successfully$220=2200 Pips Booked ($4680-$4460 Target)
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.