XAU/USD | Further drop incoming! (READ THE CAPTION)

Apr 9

Gold has been on a wild journey this year! After reaching the Supply zone at 4832-4867, it started to drop in price, going from 4858 all the way to 4698, just below the 4H FVG, but then it bounced back up and is currently being traded at 4754, about to reach the supply zone at 4768-4807.

I expect Gold to reach the Supply zone and then drop further. Currently, Gold is being traded above the April 8th & 9th NDOGs, and that by itself could draw price towards itself, and furthermore, there are NWOGs and NDOGs lower awaiting Gold, as well as the demand zones at 4629-4694 & 4362-4442.
The situation with war could also force Gold to drop, as the strait of Hormuz is yet again closed, and if the talks for a peace treaty goes south, it could hit Gold hard.

However, if Gold breaks above the supply zones, its next target would be at $5000, which is the psychological strong resistance that is awaiting it.

Apr 13

Trade active

As you can see in the 4H chart of Gold, it opened with a very large gap this week. It had closed at 4749 last week, and opened at 4685, then went even lower this morning to 4644, but then bounced back up, going as high as 4740, then dropped again now is being trade at 4733.

Considering the Geopolitical events right now, the tension between Israel & US with Iran, the fact that they didn't come to a peace treaty while negotiating with each other in Pakistan this past weekend, and now that the US has started blockading Iran, Gold is more likely to go lower and the price of Oil going higher as a direct result of this matter.

Now, I expect Gold to drop further to the 4704 level, and if the support is lost here, it could drop all the way to the 4661 level, which is the high of the Bullish OB. Then, if Gold keeps itself above the 4635 level (OB Mean Threshold), it can rise again and go higher to the 4700 level, but if it goes below this level, further drop to 4620 and then 4607 is expected.

Bearish Targets: 4680, 4670, 4660, 4650, 4640, 4630 and 4620.

Bullish targets in case it bounces back up from 4704: 4715, 4730, 4745, 4760 and 4775.

Apr 14

Trade closed: target reached

All bullish targets reached.