The Beginning of the End: Great Recession 2.0 coming but not now

OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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Gold and silver prices are trading moderately higher in midday action Thursday. Both metals are looking to a wobbly U.S. stock market for direction. A big morning sell-off in U.S. equities pushed the safe-haven metals to daily highs but then when the stock market erased its losses gold and silver retraced about half of their early solid gains. The gold and silver markets will continue to look to the U.S. stock market for near-term direction.

There was some weak U.S. economic data released this morning that sent the U.S. stock market reeling. The ISM non-manufacturing index for September came in at 52.6 versus expectations for a reading of 55.3. The news followed downbeat U.S. manufacturing data released on Tuesday.

There are still global economic growth and trade worries hanging over the world marketplace after some dour manufacturing data coming out of the U.S. and European Union earlier this week.

A World Trade Organization trade-dispute decision in favor of the U.S. over the European Union on aircraft has rattled European markets, as the U.S. then announced late Wednesday it will levy new import tariffs on EU products coming into the U.S.

In another sign of very low and even worrisomely low inflation in most of the world’s major economies, the Euro zone today reported its August producer price index down 0.5% from July and down 0.8%, year-on-year.

Traders are also awaiting Friday’s morning’s employment situation report for September from the U.S. Labor Department. Friday’s key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to be up 145,000 in September.

Technically, the gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained momentum late this week. Still, a four-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce close I above solid resistance at $1,543.30. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing December futures prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $1,465.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,525.80 and then at $1,530.00. First support is seen at $1,500.00 and then at $1,490.00

December silver futures bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. A four-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $18.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at this week’s low of $16.94. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $17.845 and then at $18.00. Next support is seen at $17.50 and then at Wednesday’s low of $17.24.

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