peterchung16

Trapped Bulls give up selling and start buying massively.

Long
FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
1. Bulls win the fight ,because Bears fails to break 1265 area 3 times. If the price action couldn't break 3 times, then it discourages the bear. Creates a void. Bulls will buy every bear bar. Every short will be squeezed. There is no reason for not buying.

2. The discouraged Bulls were trapped at 1360 and 1307. Finally, Bulls create double bottom at 1265 area. Although, Triangle break is not strong against the Bear Trend. There are no more bears to sell. The trapped bulls dollar cost average down.

3. The Trapped bulls sees 1265 as an attempt to create a trend reversal. Therefore, Bulls are keep buying until 1365.

4. Bears will have a hard time to sell and trap the bulls, because the Bear trend is broken. The best bet for the bears to play two sided Bull channel pullback or Trading range between 1360 and 1265.

5. The Bears best bet is Trading range 1360 and 1265.
Comment: 6. 21 ema was tested. This is the second time Bulls break through the 21 EMA. The probability of long is 60%. That is as good as trader equation gets.

7. Keep in mind that the Long term bear trend is broken. The Bulls will struggle against 1360. The Trapped Bulls from 1900 to 1360 would like to sell at 1360 to cover the loss or dollar cost average to get out of their position. The Bear argues that 1360 is a Trading Range from a strong long term resistance level.
Comment: 8. 11/07 bear bar was a important bear candle. Look at it. The bulls break out of the bearish triangle. Retest the Bearish trend. The body was half of the bull bar of the previous day.
Comment: The context is unchanged. The Long term bear Trend is broken at the left of the chart. The Bulls just break the Bearish Triangle. Today the bull will bet 60% that the reversal will fail and start to buy back next week. Simply, the Bearish Wedge is broken.

10. USD/JPY is mostly result in Trading Range. A lots of Bulls and Bears are confused in USD/JPY trade, because it is entered into Trading Range.

11. Dollar Index shows some weakness, but there is a high probability to push one more leg up.
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