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kicklink
Dec 12, 2017 5:24 PM

XAUUSD 

Gold / U.S. DollarFOREX.com

Description

XAUUSD idea
Comments
Alexander_Nikitin
From Harmonic Trading, Vol.1 by Scott Carney:

"Although many have written articles on this pattern, the origins of the Gartley pattern range from erroneous to downright misinformation. H. M. Gartley first outlined the basic structure of this pattern in his book Profits in the Stock Market (Lambert-Gann Publishing, 1935) on page 222." Pay attention to the words: "Basic structure". Your pattern doesn't have the "basic structure"

From Profits in the Stock Markets by H.M.Gartley:

"Let's look at figre 27(A). When, after an intermediate decline in either a bull or bear market, such as A-B in the diagram, has proceeded for some time, and activity has shown a definite tendency to dry up, indication that liquidation is terminating, a minor rally like B-C sets in, with volume expanding on the upside. And when a minor decline, after cancelling a third to a half of the preceeding minor advance (B-C) comes to a halt, with volume drying up again, a real opportunity is presented to buy stocks, with a stop under the previous low.
In eight of ten cases wherein each of these specific conditions occurs, a rally, which will provide a worthwhile profit, ensues. In the other two case only small losses have to be taken. In trading this formation, the observer is depending upon the probability that either a head-and-shoulders, or double bottom, which are the two reversal patterns which occur most frequently, is developing"

Here the Figure 27(A) found on page 222: prntscr.com/hmw5hy

An example of double bottom: prntscr.com/hmw8ok
An example of head-and-shoulders: prntscr.com/hmw96j

From Harmonic Trader, 1998 by Scott Carney:

"The key to any trade execution is determining in advance the amount you are willing to risk. Defining the “uncle point,” or stop loss limit, is crucial in containing losses and preserving equity capital. A stop loss limit in harmonic trade set-ups is really the point at which you believe the Potential Reversal Zone is no longer valid. Harmonic trade set-ups are effective because they define a high probability area for TREND REVERSAL. Once that area is defined, the point at which the set up is no longer valid should be fairly clear. The stop loss limit in this pattern is measured relative to the initial point (X) of the defined pattern. In a bullish Gartley, the stop loss should be placed just below the initial point (X)." (capital letters are mine)

Conclusion:
1) H.M Gartley outlined the basic structure of a pattern to be a trend reversal patter (either a double bottom/top or a head-and-shoulders)
2) Scott Carney agrees with the basic structure.
3) Although Scott Carney assigned some specific fibonacci ratios to the pattern he uses them to "define a high probability area for trend reversal"

Is your pattern a trend reversal one?
Reply
kicklink
@Alexander_Nikitin, thank you Alexander.
yitiancai
agree with you. Wait for the bat pattern
Wael_Fadel
I think it wil down till 1222 and reverse
en Shaa Allah
kicklink
@eng_waelfadel, insha allah .
Wael_Fadel
@kicklink, need help in CRYPTOCURRENCY
can i contact you email , Tel
kicklink
@eng_waelfadel, Welcome. contacte me at private chat
Wael_Fadel
@kicklink, it's OK
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