The rally in the US-Dollar has been wreaking havoc on gold. Over the past two weeks, the metal has suffered one of its most devastating losses in 40 years. During the past 10 trading days, gold only had one single up day, with a total loss of more than 4%. Thursday’s decline was enough to also push it to a six-month low. Since end of January I have been warning to be patient and not to buy into gold´s strength around 1,350 USD. Instead I clearly and repeatedly stated that we should wait for a pullback within the ascending triangle towards the important uptrend line around 1,250 USD..
Now Gold is extremely oversold on its daily and weekly chart. Sentiment is touching extreme pessimistic levels and seasonality is about to change to the positive starting in early July. On top tonight´s CoT-report should very likely show that the commercials have covered a significant part of their shorts which would result in a contrarian and therefore bullish signal!
I don´t see much more downside for gold. Yesterday´s low at 1,246 USD has exactly touched the uptrend-line. Maybe it will take a couple more days until the bulls get the bounce started but prices below 1,240 USD remain very unlikely.
I think gold is a strong contrarian buy right here and now. We should at least get a strong bounce driven by a short squeeze in July which will take gold back towards 1,300 USD and its 200MA. If the ascending triangle formation indeed is in play, gold will continue to rally within the next three months (best seasonal cycle of the year) towards 1,365 USD.
I AM EXTREMELY BULLISH FOR GOLD AND RECOMMEND TO GO LONG
Comment
⋅
THE BOTTOM IS IN! This morning at 1,237.85 USD
Comment
⋅
Gold is on track. The bottom is in... the summer rally has started
Comment
⋅
Gold´s ascending triangle is still in play... Weekly stochastic extremely oversold.. expect a summer rally back towards the horizontal resistance zone around 1,350 - 1,375 USD over the next two to three months at least
@PooyaSalehipour, if we get the breakout above 1350-1375 gold will quickly rally towards 1500-1525.. but this is all future music.. first of all we need to see a confirmed bottom & the trend-change. Then a 100+ rally and only then we can talk about the break out above the multi year resistance zone 1350-1375...
PooyaSalehipour
⋅
@MidasTouchConsulting, i know exactly. but if the question was mirror i told them why not. for example if someone told me gold move to 900usd i tell them why not. agree with you to move with gold trend step by step. could you please zomeout chart with daily timeframe and post it here? because i have seen 1236-1240 as a support in daily TF.
MidasTouchConsulting
⋅
@PooyaSalehipour, ok misunderstood your question... Well, nobody knows the future and it is of course possible that gold continues to move lower... If you switch to a linear chart you will see that the uptrend line is a bit lower.. around 1,235 USD.. another argument would be that small speculators are still long in gold & silver and sticking to their longs.. often these "weak hands" got shaken out before a strong up-leg started in the past.. Generally smart money confidence is extremely low in all markets.. should we be in front of a deflationary crash all markets will suffer... so far no signs of an immediate turn around.. but I like the price action in gold mining stocks on Friday...