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Gold: Dead Cat Bounce; More Downside Likely

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
While we had a dead cat bounce today providing some relief for the beaten down gold/silver stocks and miners there will likely be more downside coming before we enter the real bull run late October or by November and onwards.

At this point, I accurately forecasted that we would bounce off 1460 and test 1484 as a dead cat bounce which we have done today. I believe now we will retrace back down to 1460 and breakdown further to the 1446-1450 level. Although the technicals somewhat support a retrace all the way down to the 1380-1390 gap fill, it is unlikely given the overall conditions of the global economy. While this level will remain hopeful for the perma bears, I believe this gap will not be filled for several years.

My current 'bottom' prediction is 1450 +/- $4.00 as Gold (and Silver ) will remain under pressure until the 2nd week of October. While weak ISM numbers provided a temporary savior, Gold requires China trade deterioration/stagnation, continued weakness in USA economic data, the DXY to slowly decline and an October fed rate cut. While these are all likely outcomes through the latter half of October, I believe the Gold and Silver will remain somewhat under-pressure for the first week or two of October.

- zSplit

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