A very interesting daily chart. We can see how the price broke out of the trend and bearishly came back to test the breakout. In scenarios like this we can expect the restest, however, the test shouldn’t really hover around the breakout area. We should have seen an aggressive bullish daily candle at least testing the 50% Fibonacci level. Instead, we are seeing the 1795 level acting as resistance and we’re still stuck within the range 1760-90. Whats key here on the daily chart is that this could potentially be a small double bottom, if this is the case then 1795 should break this week and act as support. If this happens then the price will go higher towards the targets we have identified on the chart of 1810 and then 1835.
On Friday in our NFP analysis we said we would like to see the price come down to test support and then resume some bullish momentum towards the 1800-10 level where we would like to test the short. We’re going to stick with the plan for now as it worked out well for us, unless this breaks the 1800 level and holds above. We don’t want to see daily candle closes above the mentioned level.
Our plan for the week:
We will test shorts as long as the price stays below 1795 and then 1810. If we do long the market it will only be to those target prices based on strong support below. If the price breaks 1800 and holds above, in particular 1810 then we will switch towards longs towards the 1830-35 zone and then 1843-58 zones. If we get to 1850s we’ll then test the shorts again for lower pricing unless we fail to hold below on a daily close.
In summary:
Shorts below 1795 and then 1810, 1835. Longs between 1810-35 then we’re looking for resistance at the 1835-43 level.
If the price breaks above 1845-50 on the daily the structure has changed and we can assume we're resuming the bull run up to 1900s.
We’ll update our plans daily and it all depends on how the market opens and what Excalibur has in store for us. We'll trade it how we see it.
We've included the hourly chart below with the immediate trend in place. Please do add the levels and trends to your charts.
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