Clash between Technical Selling and Fundamental Buying pressure
Gold's general commentary: No surprises throughout early E.U. session opening as Price-action didn’t delivered any significant move (classic consolidation) and despite the stagnation on Bond Yields and DX on modest downtrend, Gold has managed to defend the Support throughout the session and enter the #1,792.80 - #1,795.80 Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance cluster. This is the Bullish extension of the Lower High sequence within the Daily chart’s Neutral Rectangle. The Hourly 4 chart is approaching Overbought RSI levels for the first time in #10 sessions, which indicates that #19 point decline could be ahead, since there is enough space for uptrend to be sustainable. In my opinion #1,795.80 is the Highest extension and decent Selling opportunity awaits (if Gold tests the Resistance) on that fractal. I am expecting new Selling accumulation towards #1,759.80, still assured that Gold has to respect Technical course and normalize Oversold levels on the aftermath, to cool down the Buying pressure, visible last #3 sessions including current one. No strategy shift so far as Daily chart is still Bearish on most Moving averages. However, as long as Gold is below #1,795.80, there are more possibilities for a decline, as current week was so stressful to Trade on as Gold was only repeating the Yields cycle, fractal last seen on #2015 Year. If January #20 - #27 is yet to be repeated, Gold should stall the uptrend, and give one more Lower Low (#3rd) extension towards #1,727.80 or less.
Fundamental analysis: Current strong critically Overbought levels are nothing more than a product of Fundamental pressure - mix of constant weakness on DX related to non-transitory Inflation and of course new virus variant, adding constant Buying pressure on Gold. However, I am not so sure that both factors can spike up the Price-action all the way above the #1,800.80 psychological barrier. On a normal Trading session, Technical models and rules are there to be followed, since #1,727.80 or below should be fair Technical Price, as current Price-action is far from it and Technicals don't have any significant meaning (don’t apply on such sessions). That's why I decided to stay aside for a while and wait a secure downtrend of this configuration and Profit from it without endangering my capital. It is pure gamble with mix of luck to "Buy the dips" as every point away from fair Technical Price-action I mentioned above cannot be predicted with any Indicator or Pattern, so rarely a Professional Trader would Buy or Sell the Fundamentally driven sessions as it can backfire sooner or later (reverse anytime and leave the Trader with losing position on his / hers hands). It may grant excellent return on Investment, but always changing Supply-Demand will interfere and according to my estimations, there is more harm in it (and risk) than benefits.
Technical analysis: If I can draw anything positive from the current Price-action, is that Gold (with current Yield numbers) should be significantly Lower under the circumstances, but market speculators are strongly limiting the downtrend for more #90 sessions (remember how early October Multi-Month Bearish cycle was manually reversed) . Regarding my Technical estimations: Gold is currently just above the Lower High trendline of the broken Desending Channel and initial movement (then, according to fractal) was engaged approximately from June #28 to July #2 (gradual #4-session rise). It is important to note that within that Ascending Channel, the Price-action always tested the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance zone after Support rejection, so assuming no further Fundamental shocks - Gold may be pricing a Top here (temporary or not).
Conclusion: Gold is near the strong Resistance cluster of #1,792.80 - #1,795.80, which successfully rejected Buyers intent for more than #30 sessions. I see no reasons why it shouldn't be the case at the moment, as I do not think that Gold will break it without very significant cause. If cluster is invalidated and Gold closes the session above it, I will Buy Gold on spot. However, eminent rejection may deliver excellent Selling opportunity on the aftermath towards #1,778.80 first and #1,766.80 in extension.
Fundamental analysis: Current strong critically Overbought levels are nothing more than a product of Fundamental pressure - mix of constant weakness on DX related to non-transitory Inflation and of course new virus variant, adding constant Buying pressure on Gold. However, I am not so sure that both factors can spike up the Price-action all the way above the #1,800.80 psychological barrier. On a normal Trading session, Technical models and rules are there to be followed, since #1,727.80 or below should be fair Technical Price, as current Price-action is far from it and Technicals don't have any significant meaning (don’t apply on such sessions). That's why I decided to stay aside for a while and wait a secure downtrend of this configuration and Profit from it without endangering my capital. It is pure gamble with mix of luck to "Buy the dips" as every point away from fair Technical Price-action I mentioned above cannot be predicted with any Indicator or Pattern, so rarely a Professional Trader would Buy or Sell the Fundamentally driven sessions as it can backfire sooner or later (reverse anytime and leave the Trader with losing position on his / hers hands). It may grant excellent return on Investment, but always changing Supply-Demand will interfere and according to my estimations, there is more harm in it (and risk) than benefits.
Technical analysis: If I can draw anything positive from the current Price-action, is that Gold (with current Yield numbers) should be significantly Lower under the circumstances, but market speculators are strongly limiting the downtrend for more #90 sessions (remember how early October Multi-Month Bearish cycle was manually reversed) . Regarding my Technical estimations: Gold is currently just above the Lower High trendline of the broken Desending Channel and initial movement (then, according to fractal) was engaged approximately from June #28 to July #2 (gradual #4-session rise). It is important to note that within that Ascending Channel, the Price-action always tested the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance zone after Support rejection, so assuming no further Fundamental shocks - Gold may be pricing a Top here (temporary or not).
Conclusion: Gold is near the strong Resistance cluster of #1,792.80 - #1,795.80, which successfully rejected Buyers intent for more than #30 sessions. I see no reasons why it shouldn't be the case at the moment, as I do not think that Gold will break it without very significant cause. If cluster is invalidated and Gold closes the session above it, I will Buy Gold on spot. However, eminent rejection may deliver excellent Selling opportunity on the aftermath towards #1,778.80 first and #1,766.80 in extension.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
