A great scalping week we have had so far with many pips up and down to scalp. Gold is clearly waiting for a catalyst to get out of this $20 range, and NFP might just be the trigger.
As mentioned earlier, the FED has two targets to raise interest rates and start tapering. The first is inflation above the 2% target per year (currently sits around 3.5%), so that is a check. ✅ The second is that the labor market gets going again, which is not the case thus far. ❌
Today's scenarios: 🔹 If NFP rises above 500k, then we will see a strong $50 bearish move on gold towards the 1680 support and a break of 1720. 🔹If NFP comes in as expected between 250k and 500k, gold will test the 1720 support zone. 🔹If we see NFP below 250k, gold will fly high towards the 1800 resistance zone, with an extension to 1830. 🔹In the case we see a decline of NFP, it is game over for the gold bears and gold is ready for a rocket to 1850-1870 in the coming 2-3 weeks
Arguments For Stronger Non-Farm Payrolls 1. ADP Employment Change rises to 568,000 from 340,000 2. ISM Manufacturing Employment rises to 50.2 from 49 3. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index bounces in September 4. 4-Week Average Jobless Claims lower in September compared with August 5. Lower Continuing Claims
Arguments for Weaker Non-Farm Payrolls 1. ISM Services Employment Index drops to 53 from 53.7 2. Conference Board Consumer Confidence hits seven-month low 3. Challenger Job cuts up 13.8% from 24-year low 4. St. Louis FED expecting to see a decline between 250k-500k based on preliminary data (Sept 30 candle)
🔮 My personal expectation is that NFP will miss the forecast and even a decline of about -250k, and we will fly towards my 1870 target in the coming 3 weeks. The charts however are showing us stronger daily bearish candles in the run-up to NFP this week, so it remains a gamble. Goodluck in a few hours!
@CesaroPelucci, Gold has managed to break out of that strong downtrend from last month and now is creating lower highs. A negative result for the dollar would be the push that is much needed for gold. Your analysis supports my Bullish bias as well.
Thank you.
CesaroPelucci
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@yann2zen, Yes I agree, allthough the gold weekly chart has a bearish structure we need one more lower high. Let's also not forget that the DXY is on weekly 0.618 fibo resistance and I am expecting a retrace to at least 92.5