Gold Daily Analysis - Comooooon' break out!!

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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My higher frame bias is still mostly short, even if there are some potential long alarm bells starting to go off. Any potential upside is pretty much capped at 1300 as a first level and then 1500. I'd be incredibly surprised if we saw gold             above 1500 this year or anytime soon. Would need a crazy war or new round of QE . Don't consider this likely despite all geopolitical issues.

For the past few days (2-3 weeks in fact) price has retraced a bit from the recent drop. We're still below the Ichimoku cloud which is generally a bearish sign. However, the Tenkan/Kijun cross is bullish , so I wouldn't be surprised to see it spike higher towards 1225. Momentum has been dropping (!!!) ever since the start of this retracement, so I'm not super sure there's much steam left in the bull engine.

If 1225 breaks to the upside, I'm expecting a run at the previous high at 1300. It'll have to get through some resistance around 1260 first though.

A break of 1179 would be a pretty good short signal for me. D+ is still in control, but with a falling ADX this could turn around fairly quickly.

For now, I'm sitting on my hands. If I get some decent long signals I might ride it up to 1225 and reassess then. A break of 1179 makes things a lot easier so that's what I'm kind of hoping for. Might also hop into a short at 1225 if it gets there and I get a good short signal with momentum behind it.

Anyway, my strategy for now is "patience". Would love to see a nice spike to 1225 and then ride down to 1179 and 1128 because that would complete a nice head & shoulders pattern. Would be a great setup for a trip down to 1000.
Nice upspike today while Europle slept. 1225 was respected and held (for now). Waiting for a potential short signal around that level.
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