TwitChute
Long

Buy Gold 14 month bullish channel back to long-term resistance

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
1043 11 16
5 months ago
Given the resilience OANDA:XAUUSD             has shown around the $1250 level it seems that it may have reached a short-term bottom that also matches up nicely to the bullish channel shown here.

This suggests to me a retest of the long-term resistance trendline slightly above the $1300 level in the coming month. Uncertainty from the US elections should be supportive of this.

Furthermore, this is setting up for another wedge scenario in late 2016 to early 2017.

(Arrows indicate direction, not dates)

A clear break below this channel would invalidate this scenario. Target $1300.
5 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: We've just seen a significant break from the downtrend that indicates the current move may be something other than the previous sideways action. A break above $1264 will give more confidence.
5 months ago
Trade active:
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: The price is holding above the previous downtrend and a retest has held, So far so good. Still looking for a break above 1265.
5 months ago
Trade active:
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: We just had the break above 1266 with a very nice spike. We're still in the channel but this is a very bullish sign.
5 months ago
Comment: And after saying that, we just completely stepped through the channel. I looks like (fingers crossed) we've left the sideways range behind us now.
5 months ago
Comment:
snapshot

We just had another backtest of the previous resistance trend in pink. The price still hasn't broken the upper orange resistance line so it's now possible this is forming a falling wedge pattern.
5 months ago
Comment:
snapshot

It does seem that a falling wedge is presenting itself. We may get additional rotation or it may break out on the next attempt but this is a bullish pattern and the odds favour a break to the upside 70/30.
5 months ago
Comment:
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Looks like we've already made the break to the upside, now we just need a successful retest and then we should hopefully continue the journey onwards and upwards.
5 months ago
Comment: Or this thing may just keep going
5 months ago
Comment:
snapshot

Yesterday's break came back down as fast as it went up. It seems we're about to get another go, break in progress.
5 months ago
Comment: The price has exceeded 1276 which puts me just over half way towards my target. The next level of interest I'm watching is a break of
38.2% Retracement from recent low - 1,281.26
5 months ago
Comment: What a nice finish to the week. I got my $1281.26 interim target that I had been waiting for. And now we've closed above 1275.

Shall we try for 1293.13 next week?
4 months ago
Comment:
snapshot


We've already had one big election surprise that rocked the market on Friday. I believe there is more in store before election day.

Above 1275 things are looking quite positive for that run back to 1300. Looking at the slope of the support in the chart above, it maybe in the latter part of the week we see a search for 1290.
4 months ago
Comment: We've hit 1,293.13, where the price is right now. And it's only Wednesday.

We're seeing a bit of a short squeeze so the 1300 target may not be too far away now.
4 months ago
Trade closed: target reached: Target $1300 reached. I will now follow this back to the trendline, however I set 1300 as the target so this trade is now closed.

Thanks for following, it's been fun.
4 months ago
Comment:
snapshot


Hello 2011 trendline. Thanks to Trump and again to everyone who followed this trade.
4 months ago
Comment:
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Going back to the original chart I have adjusted the arrows to match the actual timeline that took place. The really interesting thing has been the speed of this move.
TwitChute PRO
5 months ago
50% Retracement from recent High/Low - 1,293.13
38.2% Retracement from recent low - 1,281.26
Cap from recent trend - 1266.00
Pivot Point - 1,263.43
Pivot Point - 1,256.98
Pivot Point - 1,252.32
UP/DOWN
38.2% Retracement from 2016 high - 1,249.37
Pivot Point - 1,245.87
Recent low - 1,242.87
Pivot Point - 1,241.21
Reply
VRShaiju
5 months ago
Simple, Clear, Stick to the Point. Beautiful
+1 Reply
TwitChute PRO VRShaiju
5 months ago
Thank you, sir.
Reply
allanrcferreira
5 months ago
Thanks for sharing your view. I was betting in Gold breaking the upper line over 1415, an I placed my hopes in US election. But Trump messed everything and I became bearish since 1315. I really can't see Trump winning, he is a rogue candidate, without support even in Republic Party. Market has priced the easy Hillary victory. The only way I see gold at 1300 is a FED showing signs of indecision like July.
+1 Reply
TwitChute PRO allanrcferreira
5 months ago
You may be right about the eventual outcome, I don't pretend to know, but until then uncertainty may be enough to create a safe haven demand.
Reply
allanrcferreira TwitChute
5 months ago
A big mistake from rookies is believe pro traders have a crystal ball. No one can predict future. Neither me or you or anyone else! Your chart is perfect, because you give a tight SL for a eventual big profit. Under 1240 your setup is invalid. It means 100 pips in loss. But you are talking about 500 pips in profit. A 5:1 RRR. It is simple, clear and give some fundamentals to support it. But for me, with a short from 1315, is not valid. I am targeting 1200 under... Even changed my SL to 1305.
+1 Reply
TwitChute PRO allanrcferreira
5 months ago
Thank you, sir. Good luck to you, we will know one way or the other in good time.
Reply
TwitChute PRO
5 months ago
We've just seen a significant break above the downtrend that indicates the current move may be something other than the previous sideways action. A break above $1264 will give more confidence.
Reply
TwitChute PRO
5 months ago
We just had the break above 1266 with a very nice spike. We're still in the channel but this is a very bullish sign.
Reply
TwitChute PRO
5 months ago
snapshot


I've been asked based on my latest chart prediction why there will be two rotations. I want to clarify that even though I have shown 2 in the chart it may be less or more. The bias remains to the upside.

This pattern indicates accumulation is occurring, the further it falls the more bullish it becomes. This may seem counter-intuitive but have a think about it, more people are trying to get involved in a bull run but at a slightly better price.
Reply
TwitChute PRO
5 months ago
snapshot


Looks like we've already made the break to the upside, now we just need a successful retest and then we should hopefully continue the journey onwards and upwards.
Reply
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