Given the resilience OANDA:XAUUSD has shown around the $1250 level it seems that it may have reached a short-term bottom that also matches up nicely to the bullish channel shown here.
This suggests to me a retest of the long-term resistance trendline slightly above the $1300 level in the coming month. Uncertainty from the US elections should be supportive of this.
Furthermore, this is setting up for another wedge scenario in late 2016 to early 2017.
(Arrows indicate direction, not dates)
A clear break below this channel would invalidate this scenario. Target $1300.
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We've just seen a significant break from the downtrend that indicates the current move may be something other than the previous sideways action. A break above $1264 will give more confidence.
Trade active
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The price is holding above the previous downtrend and a retest has held, So far so good. Still looking for a break above 1265.
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We just had the break above 1266 with a very nice spike. We're still in the channel but this is a very bullish sign.
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And after saying that, we just completely stepped through the channel. I looks like (fingers crossed) we've left the sideways range behind us now.
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We just had another backtest of the previous resistance trend in pink. The price still hasn't broken the upper orange resistance line so it's now possible this is forming a falling wedge pattern.
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It does seem that a falling wedge is presenting itself. We may get additional rotation or it may break out on the next attempt but this is a bullish pattern and the odds favour a break to the upside 70/30.
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Looks like we've already made the break to the upside, now we just need a successful retest and then we should hopefully continue the journey onwards and upwards.
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Or this thing may just keep going
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Yesterday's break came back down as fast as it went up. It seems we're about to get another go, break in progress.
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The price has exceeded 1276 which puts me just over half way towards my target. The next level of interest I'm watching is a break of 38.2% Retracement from recent low - 1,281.26
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What a nice finish to the week. I got my $1281.26 interim target that I had been waiting for. And now we've closed above 1275.
Shall we try for 1293.13 next week?
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We've already had one big election surprise that rocked the market on Friday. I believe there is more in store before election day.
Above 1275 things are looking quite positive for that run back to 1300. Looking at the slope of the support in the chart above, it maybe in the latter part of the week we see a search for 1290.
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We've hit 1,293.13, where the price is right now. And it's only Wednesday.
We're seeing a bit of a short squeeze so the 1300 target may not be too far away now.
Trade closed: target reached
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Target $1300 reached. I will now follow this back to the trendline, however I set 1300 as the target so this trade is now closed.
Thanks for following, it's been fun.
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Hello 2011 trendline. Thanks to Trump and again to everyone who followed this trade.
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Going back to the original chart I have adjusted the arrows to match the actual timeline that took place. The really interesting thing has been the speed of this move.
Thanks for sharing your view. I was betting in Gold breaking the upper line over 1415, an I placed my hopes in US election. But Trump messed everything and I became bearish since 1315. I really can't see Trump winning, he is a rogue candidate, without support even in Republic Party. Market has priced the easy Hillary victory. The only way I see gold at 1300 is a FED showing signs of indecision like July.
UnknownUnicorn550984
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You may be right about the eventual outcome, I don't pretend to know, but until then uncertainty may be enough to create a safe haven demand.
allanrcferreira
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A big mistake from rookies is believe pro traders have a crystal ball. No one can predict future. Neither me or you or anyone else! Your chart is perfect, because you give a tight SL for a eventual big profit. Under 1240 your setup is invalid. It means 100 pips in loss. But you are talking about 500 pips in profit. A 5:1 RRR. It is simple, clear and give some fundamentals to support it. But for me, with a short from 1315, is not valid. I am targeting 1200 under... Even changed my SL to 1305.
UnknownUnicorn550984
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Thank you, sir. Good luck to you, we will know one way or the other in good time.
VRShaiju
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Simple, Clear, Stick to the Point. Beautiful
UnknownUnicorn550984
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Thank you, sir.
UnknownUnicorn550984
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Looks like we've already made the break to the upside, now we just need a successful retest and then we should hopefully continue the journey onwards and upwards.
UnknownUnicorn550984
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I've been asked based on my latest chart prediction why there will be two rotations. I want to clarify that even though I have shown 2 in the chart it may be less or more. The bias remains to the upside.
This pattern indicates accumulation is occurring, the further it falls the more bullish it becomes. This may seem counter-intuitive but have a think about it, more people are trying to get involved in a bull run but at a slightly better price.
UnknownUnicorn550984
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We just had the break above 1266 with a very nice spike. We're still in the channel but this is a very bullish sign.
UnknownUnicorn550984
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We've just seen a significant break above the downtrend that indicates the current move may be something other than the previous sideways action. A break above $1264 will give more confidence.