FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
HEADER - It's 1840.55 as I type this and 12:03 PM on the east coast. Gold really needs a strong close to keep this realistic. Final draft because gold is running out of time to make a new May high. I'm running out to time to prove this process worthwhile to some important people, and they don't seem to be too interested. Sigh... May 25th is FOMC minutes, May 30th is new moon , June 1st is ADP and June 3rd is NFP.

SUMMARY - So 250 pts in the next 6 trading days. Is it realistic? I have many doubts, too. Like they say in the south, you gotta dance with the one who brung ya. This move doesn't show up in the volume of any of the multiple spot ticker with the exception of IDC's XAUUSD ticker where it is just a maybe. It doesn't show up in GLD or GC1! ( gold futures ). It's not realistic from a trading point of view. It shows up only in IRL price mapping with cross proofing, which is pretty much the core of my methodology. What it does do is keep the gold bull market in rally position for the foresee-able future. That is to say that the other option would be back down to 1720. Price regressions say that that going there would be problematic for "gold bull thesis" in general that a minimum of 6 months of sideways would follow before anything else interesting would happen. Is there an in-betweener? The current position of all the waves put together has only produced 2 scenarios as far as I have seen. For the record, I've been told I needed to see more.

DETAILS - Links to 20H drafts 1-2-3-4 are below. This should really be called 20H DRAFT 2 UPDATE, bc it' using the same 5 sets that DRAFT 2 used.


1. the blue arrow is FED minutes release after noon on Wed 5/25
2. the black arrow is where the folowing 100 point move down should stop
3. the two bold lines at the bottom is where the current down-trend-line meets the current up-trend-line
4. so obviously it is an inflection point
5. the bold line at the top is last down-trend-line resistance
Comment: 6. the two ovals are reminders for me personally
7. the very light blue/purple square for 5/25 is absolute ceiling at about 1995
8. in theory, it shouldn't get hit
9. if it does, the selling following will be immediate and dramatic 100-110 pts move in 48 hours
Comment: 10. no, I mean 32 hours, so 100-110 pt drop in 32 hours
Comment: 11. if it does NOT get hit, then the selling in that zone would be less dramatic, but selling nonetheless, so give/take 85 pt drop
Comment: 12. if played out, the top should be Monday, 5/30 between 5 and 9 AM.
Comment: UPDATE 1:00 PM ET SUNDAY 5/21

1. Friday close was not bad, not great does not change anything except...
2. it makes that much harder to for this forecast to hold and yet...
3. I stand by it still because that's what price SHOULD do base on ALL TRENDS COMBINED
4. the best news I have is that I have proven that this move is possible in the three most important tickers...
5. those are spot ticker XAUUSD from IDC...
6. futures ticker GC1!
7. and etf ticker GLD
8. my professional opinion is that these three tickers TOGETHER can approxmate volume picture for over half the gold market
9. have I proven that? well, no
10. but can I prove or disprove that GOING FORWARD??
11. I think so with moderate conviction
12. possible does not mean probable, I know
14. so let's handicap this move
15. if I combine said price and volume information and evaluate from a neutral POV
16 . this move should be 60% vs entire field for another 36 HOURS
17. that means that TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD resolve this question completely
18. what are my expectations until then?
19. 1875 is next, gradually to 1895, then correction to 1855 ish by noon on Tuesday when it move up RELENTLESSLY TO 1990 BY 8 AM ON WEDNESDAY
Comment: 19. typo... correction to 18855-ish by 3AM on Tuesday (not noon)
Comment: 19. SCRATCH ALL THAT... 1875 is next, gradually to 1888 by 3 AM TUESDAY, then correction to 1855-ish by 9 AM on Tuesday, after which it should move up RELENTLESSLY TO 1990 by noon on Wednesday
Comment: 6.43 PM SUN

1. that pop to 1858 and drop to 1843, now 48, means absolutely nothing
2. from my perspective it implies we are going past that soon, as planned
Comment: 12:2- ET AM MONDAY 5/23

1. typo for SUN, it was 5/22 so today - Monday - is 5/23
2. it's at 1855.55 seconds ago
3. if this thing is serious, it needs 1872 by 3 AM (in 160 minutes), and 1894 by 3 PM (u.s markets/NY close)
4. because of the structure of regression waves, it's hard to entertain any other route that would hit wednesday target of 1988
5. I did say we would know by Tuesday night, but we know before that, one way or the other
Comment: 1:50 PM ET MONDAY 5/23 - we still don't know, but it's not looking great

1. tagged 1865 pulled back to 1846, now 1852
2. replaying the forecast (at top), second box disappointed
3. so 4th box needs strong price action because several sets of curves show gaps between waves that need to close for the forecast to hold
4. so targets that need to hit are still the same, 1872, then 1893
5. the problem now is that there's no more room for a big retrace
6. which begins to show a weaker top on Wednesday around 1920
7. the problem with this top is that it does NOT change the intermediate out come from (which is swinging down to 1720)
Comment: 12:20 AM ET TUESDAY 05.24, 1856.50

1. this draft, even though getting so late, is still the favorite for about 400 minutes or basically until 7 AM ET
2. it's basically done nothing since hitting 1849 last before Friday close
3. it can do that until 7 AM ET
4. then clock is out, it's straight up or straight down
5. I still have conviction this is the route, but it is 100% do or die tomorrow
6. 1910 needs to get hit before 5 PM ET
7. 1930 needs to get hit and broken by 9 AM Wednesday
8. Wednesday maybe full of shenanigans
9. goodnight and God bless
Comment: To be clear:
4. straight up or it's over for this route (not necessarily straight down, wave positioning not clear)
Comment: 2:18 am ET, 1850.34

1. just dropped down from 1855,
2. not a deal breaker, but we it's so close
3. my number crunching says drop to 1845 and it could be over period, bc there's not enough time for the move to pan out
4. so pick a stop, like 1840-1844
Comment: 5. basically it's the third box in the chart above that needs to hold
6. it disappointed second box and barely touched fourth box, now probing lows of third box
7. clock hasn't expired bc we still have 4 hours or so it can sideways
8. but going down further cuts that clock gc it has to make up lost ground
9. that's all
Comment: 4:01 AM 1860.12 TUESDAY

1. so the setup is in place
2. the strength of this move is the next 30 hours or roughly...
4. the majority of the move should be now until midnight or next 20 hours
5. move stop to 1852 if you want to trail it
Comment: 6. the first target for u.s. session is 1891-1894, if gold indeed wants to maintain bull market position, it needs to tag 1930 before 4pm
7. this is just about the daily extreme limit high for gold
8. in order to get to 1980+ on Wednesday, 1930 or 1925 needs to get tagged during market hours on Tuesday (which is today)
Comment: BTW - wait until wednesday and replay draft 2, could be interesting:

Comment: Note: last 2 boxes for draft 2 won't hit, everything before that is in the zone.
Comment: 4:51 AM ET, stop should be 1854 now, it shouldn't hit even tho it's 1857.50 now.
Comment: 9:41 AM ET 1859, stop should be 1857
Comment: 9:50 AM ET 1867, stop should be 1860

1. these stops are suggestion to defend your money
2. you can always reenter a trade if you really want to
3. I keep raising stops, do I see something I don't like??
4. yes, this move keeps waiting until "very late" to make a move
5. it makes it look like a setup for a reversal down, with the only bull scenario being spike straight up, so... defend bankroll with a stop
Comment: 10:02 AM, 1867 stop should be 1863
Comment: 11:55 AM ET 1869

1. Powell has a speech at 12:20
2. almost missed this
3. so?
4. this move is slower than we want
5. either he says something helpful
6. or something not helpful
7. or whatever, just be aware if you trade in and out of this rally
8. otherwise, the strength should keep going until 9AM tomorrow, so another 21 hours
Comment: 11:59 AM ET

1. I'm going to stop writing for a while
2. good luck with everything!
Comment: 3. defend your income, put a stop in
Comment: 4:30 PM 1867, never tagged 1870

1. what a disappointment
2. bc of weak momentum, only next 10, maybe 12 hours can be trusted for a new high...
3. put a stop in
4. it is hard to expect more than 1888 now, and that maybe too much
5. we don't have time left for a massive run up
6. so I've mentally parted from gold bull thesis
Comment: 7. conversely, eyes open for route way lower... but let's get thru Thursday first
Comment: 4.59 PM AND ITS OVER...

1. closed all longs
2. no more conviction in this route going forward