BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD RECOVERY TESTS MAJOR VALUE RESISTANCE

Jun 15

Gold continues to recover after three consecutive bullish sessions, gaining nearly 3% as market sentiment improves on optimism around a possible US-Iran peace agreement.

From a macro view, the weaker US dollar is supporting gold in the short term. Safe-haven demand for USD has faded as geopolitical tension cools, while softer oil prices reduce energy-driven inflation pressure. This gives gold room to rebound, but the recovery still needs confirmation above the major resistance structure.

Technically, gold must break above the 200-day moving average around 4,454 to fully remove the short-term bearish outlook.

Technical structure

On the H1 chart, gold has recovered strongly from the lower value area and is now trading near the strong resistance zone for selling around 4,330 - 4,365.

The current recovery is supported by the lower Volume Profile base, where price previously built acceptance before pushing higher. However, gold is now testing an important resistance band. If price fails here, a pullback towards the POC purchase area can appear before the next bullish attempt.

The main buy area I am watching is the POC Purchase price range around 4,200 - 4,215. This zone represents the strongest volume base below current price and the cleanest area to wait for a buy reaction if gold pulls back.

As long as gold holds above this POC zone, the short-term recovery structure remains valid.

Important zones

POC Purchase price range: 4,200 - 4,215
Main Volume Profile support and preferred buy area.

Short-term support: 4,246 - 4,282
Reaction area if price starts to pull back.

Strong resistance zone for selling: 4,330 - 4,365
Current resistance where gold is testing supply.

Strong support zone: 4,433
Next upside liquidity area if resistance breaks.

200-day moving average: 4,454
Major level needed to clear the short-term bearish outlook.

Trading scenario

Buy reaction from POC Purchase price range 4,200 - 4,215

Entry:
Look for buy positions only if price pulls back into 4,200 - 4,215 and shows clear bullish rejection.

Stop Loss:
Below the POC Purchase zone or below the local swing low.

Take Profit:
TP1: 4,282
TP2: 4,330 - 4,365
TP3: 4,433 - 4,454

This setup is based on the main Volume Profile support area, where buyers may defend the next pullback if the recovery structure remains valid.

Final view

Gold is recovering well, but price is now testing a major resistance zone. The short-term structure is improving, but the market still needs acceptance above 4,365 and later 4,454 to confirm a stronger bullish shift.

For now, the professional approach is not to chase gold directly into resistance. I prefer waiting for a pullback into the POC Purchase range around 4,200 - 4,215, then watching for buy confirmation.

Trade the retest. Respect the volume zone.

Jun 15

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Current gold price

Jun 16

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