chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - Chasing the price

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
2905 30 62
7 months ago
Traders who are going long in gold             in these days are running after the price.
We are very late in this gold             intermediate cycle : it started on 12.04.2015. We are in the 4th daily cycle.
Usually an IC             has 3 daily cycles in gold             .
1st DC: 28 days,
2nd DC : 23 days,
3rd DC: 28 days,
4th DC: 24 days ( and not finished yet)

A daily cycle has 25-40 days. It seems we are printing shorter daily cycles in this intermediate cycle.
So...
NO WAY TO BUY GOLD             ON THE 24th DAY OF THE DAILY CYCLE IN THE 4th daily cycle of an IC             .
The risk of getting caught is 99.9%.

The banks and funds just pushed up and broke out gold             price to get rid of the mining shares on the highest possible
prices. Now when they finished their work and sat back in their comfortable chairs gold             can start its decline on the green back of the strengthening dollar next week. (The dollar has maximum 3-4 days to break down the August low and start an ultimate rally.)

So until the dollar starts its rally gold             can test the 2015 January IC             high at 1307 or maybe ( I see a very low chance for this) 200 weekly moving average at 1325. If this 2nd scenario happens I think we will drop 50-60$ in one day with a shooting star candlestick.

Horrible divergencies in the indicators : MACD , TSI             .
RSI is making lower highs since 11th February..

So I think next 2 weeks we will see price at 1235$ at the bottom of the blue channel which we will break this time and start the decline to the 200 EMA.

P.S.: Zoom out the RSI to see the arrows
7 months ago
Comment: We almost tagged the 2015 January intermediate high in this hourly candle right now.
It looks like we are turning down from this level with a key reversal candlestick ( Key reversal: New high in the trend near to an important level and the close of the key reversal candlestick is below of the close of the last candlestick(s) ) The more previous candlestick we close below the stronger the reversal is...
snapshot

Get ready we might be there...
7 months ago
Comment: Now we have to break below the 20 EMA
7 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
7 months ago
Comment: We broke down finally.
Next step is the 10 & 20 EMA crossover...
snapshot
7 months ago
Comment: We printed a daily shooting star candlestick.
7 months ago
Comment: Waiting for the dollar to finish the move in the panic selling stage.
Maybe 1 or 2 days.
Be patient.
7 months ago
Comment: Gold rally had slowed down.
The dollar at new lows.
Gold is not able to run new highs.
snapshot
7 months ago
Comment: We are giving back all the gains that were made in the morning on the falling dollar.
Key reversal's high still holding.
snapshot
7 months ago
Comment: Bulltrap confirmed...
10&20 EMA crossed down.
snapshot
7 months ago
Comment: We are testing back the breakdown level and let the 10EMA to catch up the price
snapshot
7 months ago
Comment: It's starting to be too perfect.
very nice have the same thoughts on this one.
Reply
Glad
7 months ago
Magnificent i have the same setup. Only a gap on the open may throw us off
Reply
RogerS PRO
7 months ago
So, do you think we are in the "Thrill" phase of the IC ?
Reply
Tosharun
7 months ago
Tons of information here, very nice analysis!! Cheers bro.
Reply
Sakakikunmakio
7 months ago
I think to risk for shorting... Mybe some little retrament/pullback @127X... Then will test 13xx... Imo
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Sakakikunmakio
7 months ago
Not too many days left. If donT rally on Monday-Tuesday it's done.
Decline will eat bulls alive.
+2 Reply
SmartWallence chartwatchers
7 months ago
i open xau/usd sell @1266.55 .. should i stoploss ? my margin level 579.33%
or wait ?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO SmartWallence
7 months ago
I would wait. Where would you stop out? At what gold price?
Reply
SmartWallence chartwatchers
7 months ago
beyond 1340 .. maybe around 1345-1356
Reply
Trendhopper PRO
7 months ago
i agree, big retracement on cards, its bullish so I won't short, but maybe long after retracement
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Trendhopper
7 months ago
Professional thoughts.
Hard to find the top in a bull market.
Buying the dips much easier and profitable.
Reply
Benztownguy chartwatchers
7 months ago
Does it mean you won`t short Gold now, but you will wait for it to reach bottom and buy again on the way up because you expect gold to keep it`s way upwards after this correction to the EMA200?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Benztownguy
7 months ago
I'm shorting it.
But the great possibility will be to buy it.
Reply
I think we´re going to $1,325-1,350 first and then down towards $1,180-1,215... don't short too early.. correction will take 6-8 weeks and should bring great "buy the dip" chance somewhere end of June/early July. But right now Gold just broke out.. miners and maybe even silver could top before gold... be very careful shorting here...
Reply
Totally agree with you. Still more short term upside potential especially with the weak Dollar
Next Major Sell Zone for Gold?
Reply
We almost tagged the 2015 January intermediate high in this hourly candle right now.
It looks like we are turning down from this level with a key reversal candlestick ( Key reversal: New high in the trend near to an important level and the close of the key reversal candlestick is below of the close of the last candlestick(s) ) The more previous candlestick we close below the stronger the reversal is...
snapshot

Get ready we might be there...
Reply
Turestedt
7 months ago
Good call... was worried since being short today... seamed like it cold burst into maniac mode...
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Turestedt
7 months ago
:)
Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
7 months ago
I have around 10 traders entering at 1293-1298$.
They might have caught the exact top of an intermediate decline.
Reply
AlphaDreams PRO chartwatchers
7 months ago
So we should buy more DUST (short) now?
Reply
nexuz chartwatchers
7 months ago
11 traders ;) also short with 2 positions @1299 and 1295 - cant trade Dust but wanted to participate also from the retracement
Reply
jamesjones511
7 months ago
You are good Man!
Thx
Reply
Turestedt
7 months ago
Yep... Feel more relaxed with Gold touching the 1300 again... Does certainly feel like a bull trap. A bounce in the dollar and the opening of US stock market + am/pm fix and we might get in motion.... Again good call.... now let's just hope this follows through. As you say patience...
Reply
keefer0
7 months ago
Making great profit on DUST... but oils taking it all :)
Reply
chartwatchers PRO keefer0
7 months ago
Everything can't fall together for long time...
Gold will fall stocks and oil will soar soon.
Finally the USD is reversing!
Reply
kizly keefer0
7 months ago
similar
Reply
AlphaDreams PRO keefer0
7 months ago
Same here. Hate to hold but I'll wait for the turn.
Reply
Turestedt
7 months ago
This is playing out beautifull... now where would the support be.... being we're so far above MA. 50s, 80s? Any thoughts?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Turestedt
7 months ago
50 EMA or/and the trendline on the picture.
They are running together.
Reply
We are testing back the breakdown level and let the 10EMA to catch up the price
snapshot
Reply
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