MQP INFINITE REGRESSION INTERMEDIATE #008-4 BREAK OUT ALERT!!
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SUMMARY - We are breaking out soon. Right now it looks like 2030 by last day of 2021. The only question is short term path between now and 12/03.
DETAILS? - You need to read #008-1, -2, and -3 for background. Links are below. The regressions on this chart is my standard setting for gold prices, for 4 hour bar. Which means orange wave is 216 days, navy wave is 72 days, black/dark gray wave is 24 days, and red wave is 8 days. In the chart above, there are 3 black lines representing possible outcomes of black wave. This has been checked against various different wave configurations, not just the one you are seeing. Because of the uniqueness of this situation, I can't project red wave which is why there are so many boxes. I have boxes in different shades: THE DARKER THE BOX, THE MORE LIKELY THEY WILL HIT. The two gray highlights are *most likely high and low bounds* for this time period.
STRATEGY - Please understand that #008-3 (last post) was WEAKEST POSSIBLE picture, and it is likely that we get stronger price action on the way to December NFP on 12/03. As it stands right now, price is more likely to break upper bound than lower bound prior to 12/06 based on price action alone. Standard deviations of various lengths favor 1835 top, drop to 1780s, AND THEN SIDEWAYS TO SLOWLY ASCENDING PRIOR to break out, with lower bound at 1778 today and rising 1.2 points per day. Various volume waves I've looked at is inconclusive in that it does not favor either bound. So my thoughts are buy anywhere near lower bound.
PERSONAL NOTE - This post should hold without any updates to 2022. As I stated in #008-3, 1750-1770 is triple-A buy, BUT HOLD under 1750 and HARD STOP AT 1730. No changes to this draft unless price spends more than 8 hours under 1740.
SUMMARY - We are breaking out soon. Right now it looks like 2030 by last day of 2021. The only question is short term path between now and 12/03.
DETAILS? - You need to read #008-1, -2, and -3 for background. Links are below. The regressions on this chart is my standard setting for gold prices, for 4 hour bar. Which means orange wave is 216 days, navy wave is 72 days, black/dark gray wave is 24 days, and red wave is 8 days. In the chart above, there are 3 black lines representing possible outcomes of black wave. This has been checked against various different wave configurations, not just the one you are seeing. Because of the uniqueness of this situation, I can't project red wave which is why there are so many boxes. I have boxes in different shades: THE DARKER THE BOX, THE MORE LIKELY THEY WILL HIT. The two gray highlights are *most likely high and low bounds* for this time period.
STRATEGY - Please understand that #008-3 (last post) was WEAKEST POSSIBLE picture, and it is likely that we get stronger price action on the way to December NFP on 12/03. As it stands right now, price is more likely to break upper bound than lower bound prior to 12/06 based on price action alone. Standard deviations of various lengths favor 1835 top, drop to 1780s, AND THEN SIDEWAYS TO SLOWLY ASCENDING PRIOR to break out, with lower bound at 1778 today and rising 1.2 points per day. Various volume waves I've looked at is inconclusive in that it does not favor either bound. So my thoughts are buy anywhere near lower bound.
PERSONAL NOTE - This post should hold without any updates to 2022. As I stated in #008-3, 1750-1770 is triple-A buy, BUT HOLD under 1750 and HARD STOP AT 1730. No changes to this draft unless price spends more than 8 hours under 1740.
Comment:
FOMO MOVE? - If this thing moves to 1885 mid November, don't worry. It should retrace to 1810 or 1800 after that. What if it doesn't, well then buy now and deal with it.
Comment:
FOMO MOVE 2? - In this scenario, top would be 2100-ish for 12/31/21.
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