Hi Guys, I believe in the HIGHER probability that we are reversing on gold.
If we are looking at the bigger picture (Higher Time Frame), we are ending the second wave and hence beginning another surge of upward movement (Wave 3 which usually is a big move).
This impulsive upward move up is the beginning. At the moment i'm looking for the current correction to end and prices to move further up.
Safe Target, top of this smaller range" which is approximately 140-150 pips from current position. Price MAY continue in a trading range if price doesn't wish to break out. So be wary of this and it's a good partial profit target. Next Target: Top of the most recent High it made on the weekly which is approx 900 pips away. However if this is the beginning of wave 3 then we potentially should see price break above this and see some absolutely massive pips to be gained. This coincides with the Weekly as it has broken up the top of the trading range for the past few years. When it does break, should usually see further price moves, typically in 3 larger legs.
Now let's look a little closer. For this Chart idea to eventuate we need price to currently finish correcting.
We can enter now and place our stop underneath that big bull candle on the 4 hour which is approx 100 pips away (MUST ensure you're position sized accordingly so that your total risk fits with your own risk profile- mine is 1-2% total and i suggest not to go any higher as the mathematics of trading is not in your favour if you do so.) If you wish to enter with a tighter stop loss, then waiting for the correction is end is a good idea before entering.
A Quick Note: If bulls don't buy then shorts CAN overcome the bulls and drive the price down to the absolute EXTREME bottom of this trading range.. This is a possibility. However i do sway more towards the reversal direction and hence i will place my small bet on this. Remember: We are not looking at being inconsistent and throwing the truck at 1 bet. This is gambling. We are looking at the next 100 - 1000 trades, using good risk and trade management. Then we will hopefully see the positive return based upon our STRATEGY to consistently make profits over a basket of trades. This is what will keep us sustainable and allow us to be in the game in the long run in order to build the experiences necessary to grow, develop and analyze ourselves internally as a "Master" Trader.
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Looking to see something like this. Optimally, buying at the end of the C leg of ABC which could end at the end of the A leg or further down.
If price breaks above this smaller "Channel" and then breaks ABOVE the recent high it created, then i'll buy the breakout. At the moment, i did put a buy in at the bottom of this impulse leg, ADJUSTED FOR MY RISK profile.
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Also, here is what i see as a 3 leg impulsive drive, giving me further confirmation that this leg is an impulse.
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If you enjoyed this analysis, please give this chart idea a LIKE and follow me :) Very much appreciate it! <3
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OR C Leg will fall below, in which we will play that accordingly, but in case i can't get on the charts in time, know that we MAY be close if this is to pull off. If you can't get the timing correct on the smaller time frame, can: 1) Look to enter and place stop underneath the beginning of the impulse (WITH RISK ADJUSTED and managed properly. Don't get overly emotional here... be logical, play like as a professional and then we can look to scale in later on when price has moved in our direction and confirmed more for us and once we have negated our existing risk by moving the stop to break even later on.) 2) Look to enter on the 15 minute when the bull bar closes above the previous bar.
BEST OF LUCK! :)
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We are currently in a tight channel downward. For any buys i'd wait for the channel to break and a proper test and bounce of it. Price could come back down to test the bottom extreme of our trading range. IT seems as though price doesn't want to continue going up. Bears are not convinced after it's previous test and will want to test the extreme bottom first.
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Hourly: Wick on the bottom of this trading wedge/triangle.
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Break of upper wedge line is good indication (Y)
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Broke above
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Once price moves up to the upper extremes of the blue zone i will tighten my stops up to the blue horizontal lines.
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Want that bounce as support.
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Here we go.
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Manage trades, manage stops, manage your total risk exposure. Looking for price to break above the upper band of the trading range.
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Possible failed breakout and trading range. Lets's https://seehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zsAQLZ2R/
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Final test up here i believe. determining a trading range or a breakout. I'm in a buy to ride it up.
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More than likely a breakout with bulls dominating the closes of the bars. We need a good reversal signal if we are to reverse in this zone.
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Broke above!
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Failed breakout. Looks like a trading range and most likely reversal will be at the bottom extreme of this range, if bull decide to reverse it.