US budget deadlock causes GOLD to break peak, USD to plummet

Oct 1

On September 30, spot XAUUSD prices jumped $24.7 to close at $3,858.23 an ounce, after hitting a new record high of $3,871.73 an ounce.

The main reasons came from two factors: concerns about a possible US government shutdown and weak employment data, which raised expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue to cut interest rates. This put pressure on the US dollar and boosted demand for safe-haven gold.
According to the US Department of Labor, the number of jobs increased only slightly in August, while the demand for recruitment decreased sharply. Consumer confidence also fell to a five-month low. The US dollar index (DXY) therefore fell 0.17% to 97.78 - the lowest level in a week.
Experts say gold benefits from the weaker dollar and the prospect of the Fed cutting interest rates in October, with the probability of up to 97% according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Meanwhile, the stalemate between the two parties in Congress has put the US government at risk of running out of budget by midnight on September 30. If no agreement is reached, the shutdown will disrupt the release of many important economic data, including the non-farm payroll report.
If the US government shutdown lasts longer, the negative impact on the economy could force the Fed to loosen policy more strongly, thereby further boosting the gold price rally.

Technical outlook analysis of XAUUSD
Main trend:
• Gold is still in a narrow uptrend channel (parallel uptrend channel).
• Candlesticks are sticking close to the upper edge of the uptrend channel ⇒ buying power is quite strong but also showing signs of “overextending”.
• RSI above 70 ⇒ Gold is in the overbought zone, risk of short-term correction.

Important levels (Fib + Resistance/Support):
• Strong resistance: 3,872 – 3,875 USD/oz (Fib 0.618 + psychological block).
• If broken, the next target is 3,938 – 4,022 USD/oz.
• Nearby support: 3,825 USD (Fib 0.5) and 3,778 – 3,791 USD (confluence of Fib 0.382 + horizontal support).

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3901 - 3899⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3905

→Take Profit 1 3893
↨
→Take Profit 2 3887

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3810 - 3812⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3806

→Take Profit 1 3818
↨
→Take Profit 2 3824

Oct 2

Note

Spot gold prices hit a record high of $3,895 an ounce on Wednesday and closed at $3,865 an ounce thanks to three main factors: a weaker dollar, a U.S. government shutdown that increased demand for havens, and poor jobs data that reinforced expectations that the Fed would continue to cut interest rates.

Oct 7

Note

🔴The world's largest gold ETF -- SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 1.71 tons compared to the previous day, current holdings are 1013.17 tons.

Oct 7

Note

Oct 7

Note

As the US government shutdown entered its seventh day with no sign of resolution, gold prices, after approaching the threshold of 4,000 USD per ounce, fell slightly in the morning trading session.

Oct 13

Note

World gold prices continued to increase sharply on the morning of October 13, reaching a record high of 4,060 USD/oz, driven by a series of global risk factors.