staurum
Long

Mon 12Sep16

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
59 0 1
5 months ago
Stops are hit. I made losses for the last 2-3days. Now let's start from scratch position again. Indicators are conflicting at the moment. A thought came to my mind to balance betweek: was 1352 bearish entry or what many called a bull trap, or was it a Bullish momentum builder and we r now in a slight consolidation and a trap to catch off the weak longs.

Considering the longer lagging MACD , although drifting, is still above it s signal line, and the faster MACD should still be above its mainline as long as it closes above 32 today; plus Trix are trying to switch formations for bullish move; I will take a bullish stance with D+. Here ADX is really hiding its hand and usually this is where the big move is being cooked.

On a daily levels:
Pivots are at d:1331.2, w:1333.80, M: 1326.5
PSAR is at d:1306, w:1278
MAs cluster is in the range of 1325.50 to 1337

On intraday levels: h4 gave a 1327.8 as the lowest MA line and is now breached. the rest of the cluster sits all in a mess up to 1341.8. Oversold conditions are in the making, but still bearish .

Expectation: while i'm still bullish on the daily level, on intraday levels only bears are obvious and there is no reversal yet, but i'm expecting it to occur on a monthly pivot level at 1326.5. Let's note 1328-1330 is the break out area which price shot to 1352, so 1325-1327 could provide a demand zone .
5 months ago
Comment: 9am
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: 5:21pm
snapshot

So indeed 1325-1327 did provide a demand zone. QM level spotted at 1327. Trying to long as close as possible to the level
5 months ago
Comment: Ny session decided to push to the maximum pain limit.
snapshot

about 1:30-2:30am we have direction switch as Fed's speech slump rate hike chance. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/12/lael-brainard-of-federal-reserve-warns-against-moving-too-quickly-on-interest-rate-hikes.html
5 months ago
Comment: Expectation: Reversal area happening in the area of Monthly Pivot and previous consolidation (1325-1327).
What actually happened: The area chosen was NFP's retrace area (1319-1322). Furthermore, it's not about where but much more about when: which is the news on the Fed's speech.

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