We are having an interesting week. Doesn't matter how long we have been watching the markets : there is always things to learn. The top news in gold for me this week : James Comey firing as FBI director. I think this was the news on Monday what forced gold to print its DCL. We were very-very close to enter the final stage of the intermediate decline. This might not end well for Trump in the longer term but will help on our gold long positions. I think the US administration will have to face an internal conflict very soon. But the most interesting for me is not Comey's firing or Trump's fury over the Russia investigation. For learning something new we have to go back 28th October 2016. That was the date when FBI reopened the Clinton email investigation. And that was the date when Comey voted for Trump. It was almost 2 weeks before 9th Nov - the US elections. Somehow Comey and the FBI knew 2 weeks before the voting that Trump is going to win. No way Comey would had started the investigation 2 weeks before the elections if he was not 100% sure about the results... So we had an alliance on the 28th of October 2016. And this alliance is broken now ....
Today I'm very sure that our DCL is at its place at 1214.3$. The question : is this an intermediate low and we are starting a new intermediate cycle or it's just a DCL and we will have one more daily cycle in this intermediate cycle before it bottoms below 1200$. It's impossible to tell right now. It will depend on how Trump is moving on with the Russia investigation, and what the FED is doing on the 14th of June... I think the 14th of June is an important date. There will be a rate hike : so gold will print some kind of bottom around that date. Maybe the first daily cycle low. Maybe the Intermediate cycle low. I will play my gold trades based on this important date: 1. The 1st scenario shows if the ICL is ahead of us. In that case we could peak at the trendline or at the 200 SMA (1250-1260) in the next 10 days. 2. The 2nd scenario shows if we are in the new ICL. It's impossible to tell now where it will peak.
The swing level is at 1228,5$. If we break that the rally will accelerate. I think we will break it today or tomorrow.
Summary USA has a very strong leader now (see Syria, Comey). We have to make our trade decisions based on this in the future. The path is given: you can go on that path with him or watch him from the sidelines.
Comment
⋅
We are very closed to the swing level... It's half dollar from here.
Comment
⋅
TSI gave in the sign and RSI left overbought.
Comment
⋅
Swing in place:
Comment
⋅
I know that it looks great now. BUT... This is not what I was waiting for. Get ready. We jump off this train soon. Maybe at the tag of 200 SMA.
Comment
⋅
200 SMA is at 1247 today. We sliced through.
Comment
⋅
Taking profit on hslf of the position at 1247
Comment
⋅
Closing the next 25% of the position. 25% left.
Comment
⋅
1250$
Comment
⋅
RSI is enough overbought for me on the hourly... clising the rest at 1252$
Trade closed manually
⋅
Comments
JohnKitcher
⋅
I really like how you temper yourself - if things dont work as you planned even though you are making money, you look to exit because it shows that something is happening beyond your expectations. Excellent.
Josef2016
⋅
My prognose until now has been good.now we will see if it be good in future too?
XiaoLi
⋅
Or, all due to respect, there might be the third scenario:
The Intermediate Circle is not yet peaked (4 higher than 2), so 4 is a DCL and this intermediate Circle will peak at 1340 next month
@Andrewone, no. Because chartwatchers deems 1/27 a DCL which I don't. So I think there's only 2 DCL printed and there maybe an intermediate level peak around 1340.
Andrewone
⋅
@XiaoLi, Oh right, I understand your idea now, yes, could be good or wrong, just the charts gonna say :p :D
XiaoLi
⋅
@Andrewone, But I could be wrong. chartwatchers is my favorite analyst in this platform. so, just another scenario to discuss