Fxprotrader
Long

Gold@ Wave 3 in Wave 3 Combined With Breakout

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
Gold             was moving in descending channel since the beggining of this year with price breaking the resistance of the channel last week. This on its own is a powerfull bullish signal but there is more to add. Counting waves we can see that price is developing wave iii             of five of a larger wave 3. When it comes to elliott wave analysis trading wave 3 in a larger wave 3 is perhaps the most powerful setup. Another factor that adds to our long setup is that price tested the broken resistance, now support which tells us that this isn't a fake breakout. This is clear looking at the 1h chart.

As for stoploss i decided to place it below the last swing point of the breakout. Someone could say that it's too tight so another option would be below the support trendline which hold C, 2, ii waves (dotted line in the chart). As for profit target i aimed the 1.618 of wave 1 where price should test a longer term resistance level.

Like and comment,
John.
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FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Agree, gold is bullish and USD bearish next weeks. Price should reach the trendline resistance. Although last price action looks more as ABC zigzag starting but the direction is the same.
I didnt see the trendline retest, nice technical confirmation. Regards.
+1 Reply
Fxprotrader PRO FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Yes that's what i believe.. I am so confident that i will look to add to my position after corrections patterns breakouts. Thank you for your comment.!
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poka.star91
a year ago
I am looking at this breakout also .
But what about there is also a longer term trendline starting from the high of the week of 2012 09 30 . It can be drawn so that we are sitting right under it .
Gold has had quite a few false breakouts lately as well .
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Fxprotrader PRO poka.star91
a year ago
can you draw the trendline and post it here?
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poka.star91 Fxprotrader
a year ago
I don't know how to do postings yet .
But it connects the highs for weeks of
2012 09 30
2015 01 18
2015 05 17
You need weekly chart .
We certainly can be sitting above it but if you draw it so that it is sloping maximally ( not necessarily connecting the highs exactly ) we could be under it .
But don't get me wrong , XAU sure looks bullish right now especially after closing on the high of the week .
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Fxprotrader PRO poka.star91
a year ago
ok i see what you are talking about.. You have to wait and see the next days what price will do and act accordinaly.. I still believe that gold is bullish for the next weeks..
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poka.star91 Fxprotrader
a year ago
I also had idea about potential bullish butterfly forming with C at 1162 soon .
X = 2015 07 24 @1077
A = 2015 08 24 @1170
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poka.star91 poka.star91
a year ago
Actually not at 1162 . C could be done at Friday's high .
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poka.star91 poka.star91
a year ago
PRZ around 1040 .
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Setup should work, regardless of the wave count here. (I don't think this is a correct wave count mind you).
Nice moves ahead!
Cheers.
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Fxprotrader PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Can u explain what's wrong with the wave count?
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poka.star91 Fxprotrader
a year ago
One way or another , it is not a clear cut count .
Can ii divide as three waves ? On daily chart it definitely doesn't look like it .
1 looks like a three to me . For me it looks cleaner that way .
I personally discount the value of Elliott Wave unless I can see something really clear . This is not clear .
I have subscribed to Elliott Wave International and others and they are just awful . Wrong most of the time .
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Fxprotrader PRO poka.star91
a year ago
Yes. Wave (ii) most of the times consists of three waves, abc correction..
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poka.star91 Fxprotrader
a year ago
OK ... and this one ?
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poka.star91 Fxprotrader
a year ago
Well , what I really mean is can ii divide as a corrective structure and not impulsive .
Not clear to me that it can . More looks impulsive .
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Fxprotrader PRO poka.star91
a year ago
Sorry but i can't understand what you are taliking about.. No offense at all.. :)
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poka.star91 Fxprotrader
a year ago
You don't understand the terms corrective and impulsive ?
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poka.star91 poka.star91
a year ago
I am using only standard Elliott Wave terminology .
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Fxprotrader PRO poka.star91
a year ago
Do you reallt believe looking on my charts that i don't know what corrective is?!!! I say that i don;t understand what you are trying to explain on this post. Why don't you post your own idea on gold explaining what you really believe will happen next?
+1 Reply
poka.star91 Fxprotrader
a year ago
I am saying your corrective moves look impulsive and the impulsive moves look corrective .
In any case , it is not a good enough proof that we are going higher . I see some definite signs
that we could be selling off next week . That's what I am saying . That's all . See you .
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poka.star91 Fxprotrader
a year ago
See now , you don't what corrective means . I new all along that your count is wrong .
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poka.star91 Fxprotrader
a year ago
Bye .
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Fxprotrader PRO poka.star91
a year ago
You sound happy that this trade didn't work out.. I don't want you to feel bad but i move stoploss to breakeven when in profit. I don't want you to reply anymore in my posts because you sound like a fool. By the way poka.star looks like pokerstars.. Are yoi tilted?
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IvanLabrie PRO Fxprotrader
a year ago
Guy has 0 charts...totally unprofessional, clearly not in the know. Internet bully.
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Fxprotrader PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Lol, he is playing poker and believes that losing isn't part of the game. He doesn't know what's trading and he wants to teach us what a corrective structure is..
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Fxprotrader
a year ago
GG xD
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poka.star91 Fxprotrader
a year ago
A ii wave must subdivide as 3 waves or a combination of 3 waves .i.e. a corrective structure .
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IvanLabrie PRO poka.star91
a year ago
Neowave is an improvement, since it has more clear rules, for well, everything.
In this case, it's confusing but I'd rather focus on the recent price action, which I find impulsive.
So, we do have some kind of impulse coming out of what appears to be a contracting triangle.
In traditional Elliott Wave analysis, you couldn't have a contracting triangle ending a decline, but here it seems to be the case. (In neowave terms, you can for sure)

The value I find in Neowave, is that the way to plot data to see waves is a huge improvement, since it leaves out the noise produced by bars. A wave chart plots highs and lows in order of ocurrence, makes a lot more sense to me.
I'm nowhere near an expert with neowave, barely a beginner, but if you go through the basic rules, and the constructive rules of logic proposed in the book, you will see that you can't have so much overlap as part of the same directional leg.

One tenet is that it's better to reduce the number of waves plotted on chart to less than 56, to keep focus and avoid cognitive dissonance by information overload, so in this case, you'd be forced to plot the monthly high and low in order to have a more clear idea of what's going on to begin with.

Gold: Monthly downtrend and wave count


This was a count I molded on top of Glenn Neely's work, found in many articles and charts freely distributed. We appear to be in a corrective leg up, part of an X wave apparently.

In a more local view, your wave ii, I think, is the end of wave e of a contracting triangle that ends a larger corrective structure. Right after it I think we have an incomplete 5 wave move up. That being said, I have a signal that aims for 1205, maybe this leg ends there.

Check out some of the new corrective structures present in neowave: http://www.icharts.in/forum/files/neo_wave_patterns_206.pdf .
+2 Reply
Fantastic post! I couldn't agree more, I just published -
GOLD - KRYPTONITE OF THE MONETARY SYSTEM - GREAT POTENTIAL LONG
in regards to how much potential this has!
+2 Reply
Interesting not many have no comment about the dollar strength causing artificial subdued pricing. Would be handy to see price adjusted for dollar chart. Would look extremely bullish for Gold IMO. Thanks for the chart.
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO sapientrade
a year ago
xauusd/dxy?
Yes, interesting one.

Gives a nice perspective:
snapshot
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Fieldgate
a year ago
Very nice analysis John.
Always happy when someone else's (Elliott) views corroborate where one's own head is at.
I'm looking for this iii to pause for breath around the 1180ish level where I have a decent resistance/support level (which also corresponds to a 127.8 extension on my etch-a-sketch) and all being well (hah! this is gold) 4 pullback and then that 161.8.
Price action will soon let us know.

Cheers, Chris
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Fxprotrader PRO Fieldgate
a year ago
Thank you for your kind words..
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IvanLabrie PRO Fxprotrader
a year ago
This discussion has been very enlightening, check this out:
Dollar adjusted Gold: In depth time at mode analysis
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BCMel
a year ago
4.45pm AEDT (Aust. Eastern Daylight Saving Time) gold bursts through 1160 to 1164.
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BCMel
a year ago
Gold dramatically buses 1160 area at 4.45pm AEDT (Australian Eastern Daylight Saving Time) to 1164.
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BCMel BCMel
a year ago
Busts 1160 area ...
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Fxprotrader PRO BCMel
a year ago
Is this a live commentary on gold?
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Fieldgate
a year ago
Been somewhat of a big-dipper ride, hasn't it !
Any current thoughts you would be willing to share John ? I've run out of wanting to look at it any further for now (...queue inevitable rocket in price tomorrow)

Rgds
Chris
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Fxprotrader PRO Fieldgate
a year ago
Check out my new post
Gold Time For a Pullback
Reply
Fieldgate Fxprotrader
a year ago
just reading, thank you.
+1 Reply
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