XAU.USD near term UPDATE: Gold coming in for a Landing

Update to my bigger picture looking for new lows (click).

Looks like the plot in above chart is playing out perfectly.
This plot is an attempt to map the final leg (in theory).
Currently in a "wave 3" typified by strong, long moves.

Plottted are two possible pathways, Red and Blue.
The EW paths are just purely rough GUESSES.
But the zones are SOLID, and will be noticed.

Key Numbers:
1452.xx should bounce a bit, perhaps end wave (3).
1444/45 will surely bounce it, may end retrace in total.
1438/39 would be extended target and likely bottom.

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Previous Gold Analysis (click):
$1430 Targetted <= Currently in Play
Exact Map of Top
$1516 Top Call
$1498 top call
$1650 then $2100?<= Still Plausible
$1480 short TP
$1515 top call<= Awesome Short
$1555 top call<= Just in Time
$1406 to $1525<= Caught the Jump
$1439 top call<= To the Penny
$1332 bounce
$1270 bounce<= To the Penny
$1280 break
$1380 call <= 9 mos ago

Of course, I have had total FAILS on some ideas too, not going to pretend.
But all of my plots show PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT targets.
Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.

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Comment:

Getting a bounce where expected

Zoom on that area

shows an exact reaction at the Red fib above, and a bit of a pierce of the zone below.

That spike below looks like an attempt at $1450 round that was rebuffed by bulls.
But I think it will be re-played, and next time 1450 may not hold.
Lets see how this bounce proceeds when London Opens in 3.5 hours from now.

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Comment:

Our little bounce has just pierced the red 6.618 which had previously rejected

Lets see if it continues to the 1459/60 zone above.

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Comment:

So we got past that pesky red fib in pic above, and now it is looking quite strong

Zoomed in and looking at the last wiggles, first with a Fib of the drop on 3min

And this Green Fib of the bounce on 1min

Now zooming back OUT to put those two fibs in context of original plot

Indications are this bounce wave may have ended, and we have a new zone of interest.
This bounce could just A of an ABC structure of wave (4).
So a retrace here would still be within plan, and 1455 might be a bounce point now.

1 hour to go for London Open.
Lets see what this does until then.

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Comment:

Possible movements for next few hours

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Comment:

follow up to snap shot immediately above ^^
ABC looks to be playing out, and from the ideal inflection point

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Comment:

Moment of truth here

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Comment:

We have an initial rejection

but I am not confident that was end of wave C yet.
I can imagine one more push yet to the upper bound of resistance.
And of course, we could just shoot straight through all those red bands and keep going, but so far it is moving in the logical manner that was expected.

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Comment:

So far so good

but I have a feeling that "they" will be sneaky, and spike it up one more time before taking it down for real ..

But thus far this like an ABC structure that a wave 4 "should" have.
As well, today's bounce thus far looks "corrective" more so than "impulsive".
Corrective because it has many ups and downs, not impulsive because it does not have consistent rhythm to the bounce.

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Comment:

Bulls trying the ceiling again.
Check out the "Ping" (exact reaction) on lower boundary

quite often, such an exact rejection leads to a reversal at least in the very short term.

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Comment:

Here we go, final approach towards landing

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Comment:

o lets dig in and see where the TA was wrong, or what happened that could have been seen coming maybe?

First, a look at the Low and High of today:

the low was in the middle of nowhere in this plot, but the High was right in line with the red 4.618 (small pokes above but all in all fib was respected).

So expanding on the downward fib show in various pictures above, and adding relevant price points to the chart:

it was the 4.236 that launched it.
4.236 is a very common wave end point, and this example adds to that evidence.
3.618 was also relevant, and caused the bounce in Asia session.
And in London session it hit the high on 0.618 of the impulse.
Then in New York session we had the new low, all were Pings on fibs of this Impulse down.

Next a look at the bounce with a fib

That was no doubt a strong bounce. It went straight to the 2.618 and then confirmed the 1.618

Zooming out a bit to include both new fibs from today:

we have a couple of zones of interest just form these two fibs.

Zooming back out to the original chart,

we have some new established zones of interest, and fine tuning of previously plotted zones.

So now what? It is still quite possible that we have a wave (5) down to go yet , perhaps like this

wave 4's can come to touch wave 1 sometimes, especially if this is all part of a bigger wave .

Finally, the move from 1480 down should be marked as an ABCDE instead of a 12345,

Such abcde movements are common in "ending diagonals', in this case w5 from original plot.

In conclusion, it is still quite possible to hit $1444/45 wightin 1-2 days.
BUT, that bounce from $4152 was quite strong, so I am now look at the pullback to see if any further clues can be found.
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