GOLD: A lower buy opportunity that may arise on the long term.

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Gold has been on a very aggressive rise since it broke the 1,380 long term 1W Resistance. Recently it made contact with the Higher High trend line of its 1M Channel Up ( RSI = 73.372, MACD = 46.760, Highs/Lows = 196.7521). Undoubtedly we have entered a new long term multi year Bull Cycle but that doesn't mean that the uptrend won't be without lows. Long term traders should look for pull backs to take advantage of as dip-buying opportunities. In order to identify those we looked into the early 1W candles of the past Bull Cycle in 2000.

There are quite a few similarities of the 2000 Bull Cycle start with the current one. In the 2000s, the bear market bottom gave rise to a Golden Cross on 1W. That sustained the uptrend within the Channel Up until a new Higher High. Following that Higher High, Gold made a pull back to touch the 1W MA50 where it found support and on the next rise broke the Channel Up essentially starting the parabolic rise all the way to the 2011 All Time Highs.

Similarly the former bear market has made its bottom in late 2015 and the Higher High that followed built up the 1M Channel Up. Following a Golden Cross, the market consolidated for 2 years (unlike the early 2000) and recently broke the 1,380 Resistance to make a Higher High. If the 2000 model is followed then we may be looking for a 1W MA50 test by the end of year - beginning of 2020, which should be an optimal long term buy opportunity for a break above the Channel Up at $1,700.

Investing in Gold should be a priority for every fund, long term investor for at least the next 5 years. We will be updating our thesis on Gold with shorter term opportunities regularly.

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