Being one of those instances were a few micro level invalidations reverberates throughout both short-term and long-term analysis, I've adjusted my Gold (OANDA:XAUUSD) wavemap a bit. On my last shared idea, I was under the impression that Gold would make a big stretch upwards through the middle range of the 2000s before meeting its next considerable resistance level however, re-checking the count from last year's bottom near $1620 I am led to believe differently. I have cancelled the last idea and shared this one under a new thread due to drastic differences in mid-micro wave expectations.
It seemed that a XAU route to 17xx was off limits but with a likely correction soon to come, $1800 may be the minimally expected correction level, making it very possible that Gold could slip into the 178x-179x range before finding its ground again. Some believe that a 3K ticket could come for XAUUSD in the years ahead, based on the technicals, I am doubtful of this outcome. Instead, considering the already developed internals of the pink wave structure, $2298-$2442 are very much within the expected range based on common fib levels. To also consider the length of the apparent Wave A move in yellow, if Wave C were to match this length, we could see a maximal price tag near $2696.
The observed RSI divergence should continue to remain tru as commonly seen in Wave 5 (when compared to Wave 3). I suspect that the $2298-$2696 price tag could be reached between 2025 and 2026 though timing is always tricky to accurate gauge. Surf well :)
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Considering Gold's price action since October of 2022, it seems that a 5-wave impulsive cycle has completed. To consider the size of this 5-wave impulsive move, the correction in Wave 2 most commonly retraces to the 0.50-0.786 fib range. These levels are highlighted on this chart by green and yellow lines.
This information is mentioned in the text above as well however, this graph puts a better visual on the idea. Surf well.
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The 5ith sub-wave of Wave 5 has yet to complete for Gold. According to the structure and levels of the micro-waves, it should reach minimally towards $2018 before the correction begins to take form.
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Expected macro correction levels are generally unchanged.
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Varying degrees of resistance sit between $2030 and $2060. I am doubtful that buyers will be able to force price action above this range and will once again start to look for short entries here.
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Considering last night's price action, XAU has lost upside support in the nearby region and a return to $1800 should now be confirmed to be underway.
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We'll soon see if the trend is truly our friend...
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Potential triangle wave spotted. Unless Gold breaks below the red line, it can be assumed that a higher push into the 2000s will come.
A triangle wave signifies increased probability that the current trend (up) is soon to end.
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If the trend is your friend.
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Surfers are gonna play the double top looking move…
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It seems that my previous idea of Gold hitting $2050-$2060 was correct (and the other idea which was posted after it, was not).
Sub-wave 5 within the bigger Wave 1 move should now be concluded. Wave 2 should retrace back to the level of $1830. This is a common fib based target however, depending on the correctional wave type, support could be found above 10% higher than $1830. In either case, the bears should strike from the $2050-$2060 range.
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Due to the observed fractal wave in the final 5th wave of this segment, Wave 5 must be longer than Wave 3. Expect to see $2073 at minimum before Bears officially arrive to the party.
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Seems like Gold is still waiting on the last pump up to 2073ish. Expect heavy shorts to activate from there.
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Lowering upside target to $2500, but Gold should first fall below $1900 at some point in February.
First of all, you forecast gold price to 2300-2700, and then measure the 'waves' using an abc correction pattern. If gold price hasn't hit 2300-2700 before, this cannot be considered a 'correction' pattern. How can something that has never happened before, be considered as a 'correction'? Your A wave hits an all time high! You depict a long term bullish scenario, with gold price hitting all time highs multiple times, and yet you used an abc correction pattern. How can gold be correcting itself and making all time highs?
However, considering the motive of this post is suppose be bullish till 2300-2700. Why are you consistently looking for short positions, doesn't that contradict your overall perspective? By the looks of things, after analyzing your charts within this post, considering price action after you claimed "gold is a short", and your targets which you posted, you've lost every short sell.
Next, you post a bullish setup, with 2 invalid 1-5 structures, and other invalid structures within the 2 invalid 1-5 structures.
Finally, gold price doesn't hit your target in your invalid 1-5 structure setups. Instead of letting price action play out, you change your bias again from bullish to bearish, and now are targeting 1800 again.
You seem really confused, and your Elliot's wave theory analysis is so incorrect it is not even funny. There are reasons the theory has rules, if price action breaks these rules, the theory is no longer valid. Same thing goes for you using Elliot's wave theory, if you do not follow the rules of Elliot's wave theory, you are not using the theory but instead your own imagination.
However, considering the motive of this post is suppose be bullish till 2300-2700. Why are you consistently looking for short positions, doesn't that contradict your overall perspective? By the looks of things, after analyzing your charts within this post, considering price action after you claimed "gold is a short", and your targets which you posted, you've lost every short sell.
Next, you post a bullish setup, with 2 invalid 1-5 structures, and other invalid structures within the 2 invalid 1-5 structures.
Finally, gold price doesn't hit your target in your invalid 1-5 structure setups. Instead of letting price action play out, you change your bias again from bullish to bearish, and now are targeting 1800 again.
You seem really confused, and your Elliot's wave theory analysis is so incorrect it is not even funny. There are reasons the theory has rules, if price action breaks these rules, the theory is no longer valid. Same thing goes for you using Elliot's wave theory, if you do not follow the rules of Elliot's wave theory, you are not using the theory but instead your own imagination.