BIG MOVE AHEAD: NON-FARM COULD PUSH GOLD INTO THE 48XX ZONE?

May 8

Tonight’s market focus is fully centered on the Non-Farm Payrolls report — one of the most important macroeconomic events of the week. In the current environment, weaker labor data could increase pressure on the USD and provide additional short-term support for gold. Defensive flows are slowly returning to precious metals as the market continues struggling with uncertainty, slowing momentum, and growing recession concerns.

After a strong two-session rally supported by economic slowdown expectations, temporary geopolitical easing, and weaker oil prices, gold has started reacting at the first key liquidity zone around 476x. This area has been highlighted repeatedly in previous weekly plans as an important demand and supply transition zone. Sellers are still actively defending upper liquidity areas, although the short-term recovery structure has not been invalidated yet.

From the broader perspective, the current upside move still looks more like a technical recovery rather than the beginning of a new long-term bullish cycle. Larger institutional flows remain cautious, while the macro backdrop surrounding recession fears, interest rate policy, and global economic pressure remains largely unchanged.

The main expectation remains that gold could continue its short-term recovery toward the upper 48xx demand zones if Non-Farm data weakens the USD further. However, the 476x zone remains the first key resistance that must be cleared before price can extend higher into the 48xx liquidity area. Even if gold reaches those upper zones, the broader macro structure still favors a longer-term bearish outlook.

MAIN SCENARIO

If Non-Farm Payrolls weakens the USD, gold may continue extending its recovery higher. However, the 476x zone remains the key resistance that must be broken before price can push toward the upper 48xx demand zones. If momentum and liquidity continue supporting the move, gold could complete its technical recovery before broader sell pressure returns in line with the larger bearish trend.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO

If labor data comes in stronger than expected, the USD could recover sharply, causing gold to reject from current demand zones and rotate back toward lower support + fibo areas.

Short-term bias: bullish recovery
Long-term bias: still SELL according to the broader macro structure.

LucasGrayTrading

May 11

Trade active

Although Non-Farm Payroll data provided some support for the USD, gold failed to break out after retesting the demand zone around 4749. True to the previous bias, the 474x zone continued to be a crucial selling area as the price reacted negatively and reversed downwards.

The next scenario also unfolded as gold broke through the short-term uptrend line on the H4 timeframe with a gap down early this morning, confirming that the rebound is weakening and the market is returning to short-term selling pressure. After the breakout, gold continued to move towards the support zone + 0.382 Fibonacci level below, as mentioned in the previous scenario.

Currently, the bias remains to wait for rebounds to the demand zones above to continue looking for trend-following selling opportunities. The price reaction around the current support zone + Fibonacci level will determine whether gold is only undergoing a short-term correction or beginning a larger downtrend in the upcoming CPI week.