KVE
Short

XAU/USD (Gold): Daily/Weekly update

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
358 2 15
For now we are still above the weekly MA(200) and the daily uptrend is still intact.

If the recent uptrend (see daily chart on the right) fails, then the next down target and level to watch for a possible reversal is at the weekly up trendline and/or possibly at the daily MA(100)...

The 4H TF shows possible (double) H&S pattern could develop with first target around 1250...
I will therefor focus on the level 1250-1270 first...

Further break below will likely give way to at least 1200 which is the next level of possible strong support.


Comment: Current situation: we formed a weekly bullish candle again, now back at the trendline and the 0.618 ret. of the last down move, monday could give us a clue. Daily has room to go up though, 1358 is level of left shoulder of possible H&S pattern, 1370 is upper BB.
Weekly/daily update:
snapshot

And here's the 4H:
snapshot
Comment: No retracement so far, 0.618 surpassed, zigzag correction is very unlikely now, flat correction or new uptrend, both are possible...
Next level to watch is the former top and upper BB around 1375...
Glad I went long at 1314 for my longterm position...
snapshot
Comment: C wave?
If harmonic (AB=CD) then target is between 1302 and 1293... (0.786-0.886 ret. so 1.13-1.27 ext.), if extended then look for possible alt 1.618 AB=CD which would end around 1271...

Watch for confluence with test of weekly MA(200), daily MA(100) and/or the 'up' trendline

Do not forget about the 4H chart posted before (support levels ~1300-1250-1200)!

snapshot
Comment: It seems I mistakingly entered the wrong number in the fib tool (-0.131 instead of -0.113...):
the 1.13 ext. is therefor at 1303.52 and not 1302..., not a big difference but it was wrong so...
Corrected chart:
snapshot
Comment: Gold is showing some pinbars on the daily, might be an indication that we have a resistance area on top and it will drop again..., momentum indicators not conclusive, close to flat with room to either side...
4H shows a possible flag or triangle ready to break to the downside, we'll see...

I hope it does go down so I can add to my longterm long position at a better level...
snapshot
Comment: 4H stochastics overbought but PA weak, may be going down soon...
snapshot
Comment: Possible triangle on the daily...?
XAU/USD (Gold): Correction forming a triangle?
so far so good it is following the pattern
Reply
KVE pmcllc
Yep, back at the trendline now, 0.618 ret. of last down move so this is an important level.
The daily still has room to go further up though, 1358 is left shoulder of possible H&S pattern (4H chart) and 1370 is daily upper BB.
Monday could give us confirmation.
Cheers and have a good WE!
Reply
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