chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - Sell the news

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
2982 34 41
4 months ago
I think the good job data had finally triggered the daily cycle top in gold             . We should move down into the DCL now.
The hourly topping pattern looks perfect to me : double top, testback of the trendline, one more pullback to 1370$ to stop out the early shorts - while smartmoney is selling the miner shares.

This decline should last for only a few days as on the 30th of May we not just printed a daily cycle low , but an intermediate low. So this 30+ days long daily cycle is only the first we should have 2 more. And the 2nd one is always the strongest.
So I will try to ride this decline down to 1300$. I'm quite sure we will tag the 50 EMA before the low is in.

Right now we are fighting with the bear market's weekly trendline. I'm pretty sure we are going to close below that level ( below1353$)


4 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
niteshkumar
4 months ago
i daily watch ur graphs study ur analysis undoubtebdly good....keep posting for me
Reply
piptamil
4 months ago
Thanks.
Reply
jinyuji210
4 months ago
Which one should I buy for short gold? I have some DUST. But it seems it keeps falling. Thanks.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO jinyuji210
4 months ago
Buying DUST JDST is for miner shorts.
If gold falls they will follow as they are much more overbought than gold.
Reply
Billeci chartwatchers
4 months ago
I've been sitting in a small JDST position, looking to push it at some point during the expected upcoming DCL. In the meantime, I've been holding off on taking a position in JNUG / DUST, since they've pushed high / apparently overbought, but they keep running with momentum nonetheless. As you noted, I have to believe it's the retail buying / positioning propping the miners up at this point. Waiting for the pendulum to swing!
Reply
bertcoin PRO jinyuji210
4 months ago
Normally DUST (3x short miners) when XAUUSD is trending down. I've been doing DUST and NUGT, but they seem very disconnected from XAUUSD and CW's analysis with all this recent market turmoil. I might start to experiment with GLL/UGL (only 2x - but maybe a safer play...). Anyone else have an opinion?
Reply
jinyuji210 bertcoin
4 months ago
Exactly. It doesn't follow GOLD now.
Reply
pbartashevich PRO jinyuji210
4 months ago
It is actually follows Gold. Gold is slowly creeping up showing gold miners that it might not fall. At least there is no certainty that it will fall. Miners are fine at gold above $1200. So unless they scared that gold really go down they still may be a good buy, especially as they expected to show nice growing earnings in Q2.
Reply
jinyuji210 pbartashevich
4 months ago
I c. just like oil. once oil is above 45, oil companies are fine
Reply
bertcoin PRO jinyuji210
4 months ago
GLL: "ProShares UltraShort Gold (the Fund) seeks daily investment results that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of gold bullion as measured by the United States dollar p.m. fixing price for delivery in London"
Reply
bertcoin PRO bertcoin
4 months ago
Ugh. Not much volume on GLL.... :( Not liquid enough.
Reply
bertcoin PRO jinyuji210
4 months ago
Ok - going to play DUST on this short call. In at 5.75 and another buy if 5.63 (test the low).
Reply
Looks like Silver broke up from the flag again today. Will gold follow - it might. Still uncertain situation.
Reply
GDX doubled confirmed double bottom at 29.43 with target to retest high at $30.69. By doing that it will close the gap posted from June 06 to 07. Will be bullish. Although it may be a double top at that time but I still think $32 is the ultimate target for this move.
Reply
Just a thought on cycles count 45 + 19 = 64/2 = 32 maybe that 19 was a daily low on shorter cycle because of previous was prolonged. Also from today that May 30 low looks like ICL. At least it was quite significant low and pushes up from that low were very strong. Does it makes any sense?
Reply
bertcoin PRO pbartashevich
4 months ago
Arpi agreed that May 30 was the ICL in an earlier idea.
Reply
bertcoin PRO pbartashevich
4 months ago
Now I see what you are saying @pbartashevich. Interesting - calling this a possible 30+ day cycle as opposed to the 2nd cycle, the first being at the "19" on the chart. If yesterday was the half cycle high, that's only maybe a 18 day cycle (the 2nd after the ICL on May 30). Cycle inside the cycle, or just saying the Brexit was an outlier event?
Reply
pbartashevich PRO bertcoin
4 months ago
Yes the 19 is shorter cycle to bring cycle count into normal (around 28 days). it is shorter because previous one was too long and it was forced by Brexit event. So if we count from 19 we only 8 days in current daily cycle. Just an idea.
Reply
pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
4 months ago
Also we had only two waves up from that 19 days low so one more leg up is happening right now before daily cycle top.
Reply
kp1825 pbartashevich
4 months ago
Hmmm...does that mean we are looking at a new high next week?
Reply
pbartashevich PRO kp1825
4 months ago
I think after what just happened our original $1400 target is on the table. GDX now at the tipping point if it breaks $30.68 it will go to $32 which will be H&S target and complete pattern. DUST will be a little below $5. Let's see if this happen. I sold my DUST that I bought just 1 hour ago, right after we broke little flag at $1360 on 5 minutes chart. Thinking to buy it around $5.
Reply
No comments....
Reply
Mannnassser
4 months ago
Thanks for ur recommendations
Reply
Still, COT and open interest suggests that gold is topping and top is either already happened or will happen next week.
COT - large speculators added to short their position second COT report in a row, that is pure speculation - not hedging. Commercials REDUCED their long position this Friday's COT report.
Yesterday's open interest was reduced for both Gold and Silver, so the trend continues.
So if we open down on Monday and move below $1360, that suggests that we have probably topped on July 06.
+1 Reply
JesseL
4 months ago
FYI: Received this Alert in my account this morning and promptly sold my highly leveraged GDXJ shares today:

Thu Jul 07 16:02:14 2016 Special Margin Maintenance Requirement change

In order to effectively manage the risks associated with margin accounts, E*TRADE`s Margin Risk team periodically reviews requirements based on the concentration levels within your account. The margin maintenance requirement previously set for your account for the below holding has changed. This may increase or decrease the purchasing power you have available for trading.

Account ending in: XXXX-0814
Holding: GDXJ (VANECK VECTORS JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF)
New Requirement: 55%
Old Requirement: 25%
+1 Reply
pmcllc PRO JesseL
4 months ago
that's a 100% or double the margin requirements! that is bad news! margin call will be hit!
Reply
JesseL pmcllc
4 months ago
I am guessing that the new margin requirements will force a lot of selling in GDXJ, and I am also pretty sure that there are a lot of other Gold/Silver ETF's that are also getting their margin requirements doubled. Monday will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
Reply
pbartashevich PRO JesseL
4 months ago
Nice example of manipulation :). Good to know. Thanks. Looks like THEY don't want gold to go up and it is certainly the time to stop it. If we move a bit further away from downtrend line it will become officially bull market. As of today it is still a bear.
Reply
epalazzo
4 months ago
What has happened on July 8? The peak on July 06 was a peak or not yet? If it was a peak what do you say for July 08, was it a decline, because sure it went below July 7's low but almost also went higher than July 6's peak.
Reply
Mannnassser
4 months ago
July 8th was a sign to which level gold is strong despite the positive employment data ... GOLD IS GOING UP
Reply
fali4209
4 months ago
i think its going long to 1400-1425 resistance broken on daily and flag looks bullish.

your graphs are great do you also have a Silver chart ?
Reply
isaac312 PRO
4 months ago
would you like to update mate??

1. now 1366
2. 7.28 FOMC no hike
3. 7.20 Greek Payment due
4. China issue
5. JP BOJ QE 7.28
Reply
FerminNunez
4 months ago
I agree , it is time to get out any long position
Upside momentum is waning, still has some left that will try again to reach 1370 - 1375
Fib . retracement 1308.54 - 1287 good area to be long again


Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out