I think the good job data had finally triggered the daily cycle top in gold. We should move down into the DCL now. The hourly topping pattern looks perfect to me : double top, testback of the trendline, one more pullback to 1370$ to stop out the early shorts - while smartmoney is selling the miner shares.
This decline should last for only a few days as on the 30th of May we not just printed a daily cycle low , but an intermediate low. So this 30+ days long daily cycle is only the first we should have 2 more. And the 2nd one is always the strongest. So I will try to ride this decline down to 1300$. I'm quite sure we will tag the 50 EMA before the low is in.
Right now we are fighting with the bear market's weekly trendline. I'm pretty sure we are going to close below that level ( below1353$)
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Comments
JesseL
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FYI: Received this Alert in my account this morning and promptly sold my highly leveraged GDXJ shares today:
Thu Jul 07 16:02:14 2016 Special Margin Maintenance Requirement change
In order to effectively manage the risks associated with margin accounts, E*TRADE`s Margin Risk team periodically reviews requirements based on the concentration levels within your account. The margin maintenance requirement previously set for your account for the below holding has changed. This may increase or decrease the purchasing power you have available for trading.
Account ending in: XXXX-0814
Holding: GDXJ (VANECK VECTORS JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF)
New Requirement: 55%
Old Requirement: 25%
pmcllc
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that's a 100% or double the margin requirements! that is bad news! margin call will be hit!
JesseL
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I am guessing that the new margin requirements will force a lot of selling in GDXJ, and I am also pretty sure that there are a lot of other Gold/Silver ETF's that are also getting their margin requirements doubled. Monday will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
pbartashevich
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Nice example of manipulation :). Good to know. Thanks. Looks like THEY don't want gold to go up and it is certainly the time to stop it. If we move a bit further away from downtrend line it will become officially bull market. As of today it is still a bear.
pbartashevich
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Still, COT and open interest suggests that gold is topping and top is either already happened or will happen next week.
COT - large speculators added to short their position second COT report in a row, that is pure speculation - not hedging. Commercials REDUCED their long position this Friday's COT report.
Yesterday's open interest was reduced for both Gold and Silver, so the trend continues.
So if we open down on Monday and move below $1360, that suggests that we have probably topped on July 06.
FerminNunez
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I agree , it is time to get out any long position
Upside momentum is waning, still has some left that will try again to reach 1370 - 1375
Fib . retracement 1308.54 - 1287 good area to be long again
isaac312
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would you like to update mate??
1. now 1366
2. 7.28 FOMC no hike
3. 7.20 Greek Payment due
4. China issue
5. JP BOJ QE 7.28
fali4209
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i think its going long to 1400-1425 resistance broken on daily and flag looks bullish.
your graphs are great do you also have a Silver chart ?
Mannnassser
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July 8th was a sign to which level gold is strong despite the positive employment data ... GOLD IS GOING UP
epalazzo
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What has happened on July 8? The peak on July 06 was a peak or not yet? If it was a peak what do you say for July 08, was it a decline, because sure it went below July 7's low but almost also went higher than July 6's peak.
Thu Jul 07 16:02:14 2016 Special Margin Maintenance Requirement change
In order to effectively manage the risks associated with margin accounts, E*TRADE`s Margin Risk team periodically reviews requirements based on the concentration levels within your account. The margin maintenance requirement previously set for your account for the below holding has changed. This may increase or decrease the purchasing power you have available for trading.
Account ending in: XXXX-0814
Holding: GDXJ (VANECK VECTORS JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF)
New Requirement: 55%
Old Requirement: 25%