Let me start by saying, I think Gold should be Long. However, in trying to find the end of the bear trend, level after level is being broken. I originally forecast a turnaround at 1230 on 15th
Then I updated it lower to 1225
Nothing wrong with admitting I'm wrong, but the power comes in updating my views in reaction to market moves. I have a feeling I have totally misread the 5 waves down.
I cannot believe Gold will go down to 1200 due to the fundamentals supporting Gold such as QE in Europe & Japan, inflationary pressures from trade wars... but since when was the market rational? That's why we are pattern traders, since we realised that there is a component of irrational sentiment controlling the market.
So I have overlaid my original 5 wave down & coloured it grey and the new 5 wave is in yellow. I did this because it became clear that each of my fib levels were being cleared and pitchforks were being thrown out the window. So that tells me my conviction of the turnaround for Gold is wrong & I need to read the tea leaves in front of me.
Psychologically I think 1200 is a floor, so I think the wave 3 fib extension & wave 1 projection around 1212 (plus the wave 4 retracement slightly above) is the new target.
There seems to be a lot of fib lines converging at 1180, but I think that's implausible.
My daily trading rules won't allow me to short as the daily stochastics are oversold.
However, looking at the hourly chart, if I get confirmation of a wave 3 down and stochs are overbought, then I will go short based on the hourly and ride that down to 1212.
Trade closed: target reached
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Gold hit my target low of 1212 before I expected and has now overshot what I thought would have been a wave 4 on my hourly chart.
So I'm closing out this "Short" view and have now gone long at 1224 with a stop at 1209.
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The daily chart stochastic has crossed over and momentum seems to be back up.
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We will have to wait till tomorrow on the daily chart to confirm a momentum swing back upwards from the new recent lows... My typical trading strategy is to ensure 1 bar trailing high takes out the upswinging bar. However, today I've been looking at the 1 hour charts since I have more time & I have pulled the trigger early as noted this morning.
Since we do not have any upward waves on the daily chart, I have to fib retrace the previous upward motive waves (waves 2 & 4 from the previous 5 wave down), then fib project wave 4 onto the new low. My target is 1254.
I'm betting here that the bear trend is over, but nothing is ever certain... hence the stops put into place.
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The daily chart looks interesting. Stochastics have crossed over and looks to be in a nicely shaped upswing. The Australian timezone chart looks even better than this universal time chart as we have "saturday morning's" bar which is also bullish covering Friday's bar (i.e. higher high formed).
There are still risks to going long. I'm also tracking USD and there seems to still be a lot of money going back to USD from all currencies. Strangely this surge for USD has suppressed the Gold price given the Geo-tensions, but any love for USD can cut this upward swing short. However, I side with other commentators and think there is more upside.
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I'm targeting 1242, but it could go as high as 1252.
In the immediate short term, I see fib retracement 88.6% at 1216 as a floor. I'm not too worried that my Long trade will get taken out with my stop at 1209.
We will have to wait till tomorrow on the daily chart to confirm a momentum swing back upwards from the new recent lows... My typical trading strategy is to ensure 1 bar trailing high takes out the upswinging bar. However, today I've been looking at the 1 hour charts since I have more time & I have pulled the trigger early as noted this morning.
Since we do not have any upward waves on the daily chart, I have to fib retrace the previous upward motive waves (waves 2 & 4 from the previous 5 wave down), then fib project wave 4 onto the new low. My target is 1254.
I'm betting here that the bear trend is over, but nothing is ever certain... hence the stops put into place.
YIQI
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thanks for your sharing, and do you have any idea about subsequent trading...
ck9888
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@YIQI, Good question. I've put this aside since I'm trying to find direction on another trade. I've just come back to this & will update in my comments stream
YIQI
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@ck9888, I am not very skilled at using tradingview, but, in my way, if in long-term, i thought, first, 1219 to 1234-1237, and second 1234-1237 to 1229, and third 1229 to 1242,
ck9888
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@YIQI, out of interest, are you looking at 1hr charts & basing this on the fib projection levels? I encourage you to share your ideas on your channel!
Since we do not have any upward waves on the daily chart, I have to fib retrace the previous upward motive waves (waves 2 & 4 from the previous 5 wave down), then fib project wave 4 onto the new low. My target is 1254.
I'm betting here that the bear trend is over, but nothing is ever certain... hence the stops put into place.