chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - The forgotten triangle

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
7830 104 113
6 months ago
I 've found one more pattern which supports the short side : the green triangle.
Triangles and pennants are continuation patterns in 90% of the cases. This one is in the 10% exception as it broke down and no to the upside.
I dont find anything just retail trader sentiment that supports the long idea...
The target counted from the triangle (purple line) is around 1190-95.
Once we break down 1190 we are entering into the panic selling stage.
6 months ago
Comment: I would like to see as price is coming down into the red box by Wednesday.
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: We are in the 2nd wave now.
6 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: Testing back the triangle?
6 months ago
Comment: US DOLLAR in a range while gold is already in a decline.
Gold will shift gears in the decline when USD breaks out from the range.
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: We broke down the resistance at 1243$.
Lower low again.
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: This is the power of the 413.000 commercial short.
Once we run out of buyers gold can't stand up.
6 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: So don't have to be in a rush to close the short position.
Relax. Let the bulls to freak out.
6 months ago
Comment: This hourly candle will be the last big volume candle today.
Important how it will close. I would like to see a red candle. In the next hours we can see some kind of bounce. Don't count on 10$ move, but something will be , some hope to the bulls.
I'm 100% sure that the decline will continue tomorrow. On the attached picture you can see the 4 big volume candles... ;)
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: Starting to look really ugly.
6 months ago
Comment: Day traders could book some profit here.
6 months ago
Comment: Bulls who were trying to long from the trendline are giviving up here.
It's a daily capitulation.
6 months ago
Comment: Crazy. No buyers.
Gold for sale.
6 months ago
Comment: And here is our last big volume candle today.
RED candle...
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3977520-time-take-profits-gdx
Latest news - LOL
vchelimella
6 months ago
Kewl any chance it can get to 1220 today ?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO vchelimella
6 months ago
Not out of the table but 30 $ is a bit lot for a one day.
Wednesday is too late for you?
Why in a rush?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
I think 1237$ will the bottom today .
Tomorrow easily could be.
Reply
Narthex
6 months ago
this is great! how is your day going? :)
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Narthex
6 months ago
Busy.. Bulls are bombarding me with personal messages why are we going down...
:D
+1 Reply
ice_holly01 chartwatchers
6 months ago
is it late to buy dust now? thanks.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO ice_holly01
6 months ago
The ideal point to enter DUST was 05.17.-05.18. Maybe today will be good if gold doesn't break down till the US market open.
If it breaks down DUST will open with a gap. From that point it's hard to tell is it ok to enter or it's late....

Anyway I think once the rally starts it will go minimum to 40$ and most probably to 60$.
Is that matters if you enter at 12 or 15?
I think it's a low risk enter today also. Just put your stop below 12$ and wait.
Don't try to jump in and out after a 2$ rally... Once it starts it's going to run away
+1 Reply
KevinTang chartwatchers
6 months ago
Hi, thanks for posting. I tried to trade JDST/JNUG, like sell on high at JDST, buy at low at JNUG, then sell JNUG in the same day, and buy back JDST. It has been working in the last week because of the upside/downside waves. Any advice on my trading in this week?
Reply
ice_holly01 chartwatchers
6 months ago
Thank you master! I still have a bit position bought at 14.8. I will add more and sit tight. :)
Reply
Bearbud chartwatchers
6 months ago
Is it too late to get into DUST? Last I looked it was at 14.89 or close to it. So I am confused about above getting in at 5.17?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Bearbud
6 months ago
No too late. You wanted to write 15.17 didn't you?
Reply
dimitriosb602
6 months ago
Great job chartwatchers
Reply
chartwatchers PRO dimitriosb602
6 months ago
Thanx
Reply
Loii
6 months ago
I am bearish too. my bottom is $1230, if they breaks then around $1200 will be a good support. this is a normal correction for a bullish weekly trend.
Reply
watsonzou26
6 months ago
did you short yet?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO watsonzou26
6 months ago
Yes we are short from 129x
Reply
kizly
6 months ago
run away started..
Reply
isaac312 PRO
6 months ago
when can we buy dust?? or option for dust or nugt seems to be good time??
Reply
chartwatchers PRO isaac312
6 months ago
The ideal point to enter DUST was 05.17.-05.18. Maybe today will be good if gold doesn't break down till the US market open.
If it breaks down DUST will open with a gap. From that point it's hard to tell is it ok to enter or it's late....

Anyway I think once the rally starts it will go minimum to 40$ and most probably to 60$.
Is that matters if you enter at 12 or 15?
I think it's a low risk enter today also. Just put your stop below 12$ and wait.
Don't try to jump in and out after a 2$ rally... Once it starts it's going to run away
Reply
isaac312 PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
lol Thank you mate. I read all of your comment already , but did not quiet understood that you expecting dust to go $40 by when?? just curious and want to follow your rationale.
Is there any resistent indicator point we can super bullish on dust??
Reply
chartwatchers PRO isaac312
6 months ago
I'M watching GDX-GDXJ-NUGT and some individual miners. DUST's chart is terrible so you can't chart it.
I will jump out DUST when I see the signs in GDX and GDXJ (or NUGT). ANd watching gold as well. When gold prints the intermediate cycle low then comes my dustexit.
The moment will come in a month.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
But 40-60$ is not irreal. Once miners start to fall it will be really scary...
DUST will fly with teleportation gaps. :)
Reply
toothless chartwatchers
6 months ago
Good morning! Thank you again for all of your analyses. Learning a lot and always enjoying the reads. Mahalos from Hawaii
Reply
chartwatchers PRO toothless
6 months ago
Thanks for the support ajmataz! ;)
Reply
farrukhmpm chartwatchers
6 months ago
Sir, any idea about S&P, Should we hold it. Long at 1242?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO farrukhmpm
6 months ago
Sorry I couldn't answer it has a long way to go. I hope you didn't close.
Reply
isaac312 PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
thanks mate! I was thinking similar, but why? soros and his friends are buying tons of load I think, then the retailers also react same to miners stocks, so even xauusd down but stock wont punish much
Reply
saint_athur isaac312
6 months ago
Arpi, what is your point of view regarding soros statement? Or he just trap retail traders?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO saint_athur
6 months ago
What was that? I didn' read anything now.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO isaac312
6 months ago
THey have a hell of a lot of money. They are buying for the next 3-4 years.
THey just need a good average. So they will buy all the dips down to 1140$.
Reply
saint_athur chartwatchers
6 months ago
Tq arpi. Nice opinion.
Reply
I have a large buy at 1254 already in loss, should i hold on to it or let go of it? whats the furthest we can go on the upside today?
Reply
KevinKhuthadzoMuluvhu KevinKhuthadzoMuluvhu
6 months ago
By the way, been going through your analysis, you're good at what you do sir
Reply
chartwatchers PRO KevinKhuthadzoMuluvhu
6 months ago
The bad news that we might not go to the upside. :(
I set the levels in the BEAR AWAKENS post. But I can't tell you what will happen exactly in the next 2-3 days.
I think we go to 1226-1230$ now. But if you close now and we bounce then you will not be happy.
What I would do is to cover the whole position set a take profit for the longs at 1040 Then your platform will hold both position the longs and the shorts. Wait 5-6 weeks when gold bottoms and close there the shorts. And then you will be long again from the bottom.
I think I will know when gold starts to go up again at the end of June or beginning of July.

Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
corrected: ***Set a take profit for the shorts.***
Reply
KevinKhuthadzoMuluvhu chartwatchers
6 months ago
Thanks
Reply
eberts chartwatchers
6 months ago
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/major_cycle_low_upcoming_in_gold/
what's your opinion on this timing ? and btw, tx for your great analysis !
Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
Did you cover the longs?
Reply
KevinKhuthadzoMuluvhu chartwatchers
6 months ago
Yes i did thanks... booked quite abit of profit aswell. thanks
Reply
chartwatchers PRO KevinKhuthadzoMuluvhu
6 months ago
Fantastic! Happy to hear that you were not watching this decline in a long position.
Reply
Renegade7
6 months ago
got back in at 1248.70,, glad to see it go past 1243. Thanx for the analysis it keeps me anchored, especially when it dovetails with what I look at.
Reply
itrade9s
6 months ago
It is very frustrating to see GDX so resistant to the fall compared to gold. It has decoupled so far from the gold price ever since February. It moves on a 3:1 or higher ratio on up days but only 2:1 ratio on down days. At gold price levels right now, GDX should be back under 19 like it was back in February and March. It just appears to me it has heavy dip buying action every single time.
Reply
xiiimik itrade9s
6 months ago
I think it will fall faster now. The horizontal resistance was broken. The target should be around 21-19.
+1 Reply
xmrtl itrade9s
6 months ago
Miners/ explorers generally have been even more extremely oversold vs gold because many were not profitable anymore at those prices- now sentiment has shifted knowing we are in the new bull so we can`t expect old price levels to match the coming higher low . Many will hold on to their core position.
Also when gold crashed in October remember the miners hit the bottom first and held up at that level while gold was falling to 1050 (only to recieve the last smack down when gold already had started to move up again)
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO itrade9s
6 months ago
Just wait as it breaks 22.75. Miners will follow gold.
+1 Reply
itrade9s itrade9s
6 months ago
I understand and appreciate the responses but GDX is at same price when gold was 15 dollars higher just less than a week ago. Should have shorter gold instead of miners? investors love buying these miners on drops hoping for uptrend continuation again...
Reply
chartwatchers PRO itrade9s
6 months ago
Gold's decline could be stronger than miners' decline.
Or maybe gold drops 7-8$ tomorrow and GDX will have a 7-8% decline tomorrow.
It's impossible to tell what will happen.
+1 Reply
Turestedt
6 months ago
Beautiful :)
Reply
nick1236
6 months ago
incredible :)
Reply
YACCINE
6 months ago
This is great.
Thanks man
Reply
Abdu079
6 months ago
you are the king of gold, amazing.
Reply
isaac312 PRO
6 months ago
You are so handsome!
Reply
Victor.Y.F
6 months ago
I'm riding the trend now. Thank you!
Reply
AlphaDreams PRO
6 months ago
Not touching a thing, thanks so much for your expert guidance!!!
Reply
Abdu079
6 months ago
do you think the trend will go up to 1237 for correction?
Reply
Abdu079
6 months ago
or 1239-45?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Abdu079
6 months ago
1240$ is possible. DOn't thinnk it will go higher.
Now the trapped bulls will sell every bounce.
Reply
alanprotrader chartwatchers
6 months ago
I closed my short with 220 pips, thanks for that nice call.
Reply
saif12 PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
Thanks man, I am enjoying your analysis, even I am not trading yet. but I enjoy your deep insight. especially regarding XAUUSD, and DUST
Reply
saif12 PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
You may consider changing your name to stormwatcher :)
Reply
chartwatchers PRO saif12
6 months ago
LOL.
thanx
Reply
val_trader
6 months ago
As a day trade I exit with gain. Thanks for your excellent analysis !
Reply
lazie445 PRO
6 months ago
keep up the amazing work sir!!
Reply
alanprotrader
6 months ago
Now looking a good retrace to short again. I will follow your ideas. Thanks.
Reply
MichaelaMeyer
6 months ago
Hi. Do u think there could be a possible bounce anytime ton
ight? Or do you believe it will continue to fall? Whats your opinion?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO MichaelaMeyer
6 months ago