OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
I'm not playing this idea on my private account, because I'm not shorting gold in the middle of the intermediate rally, but some of you might want to bet on a 10-20$ drop in gold as it moves down into its daily cycle low.

I see some kind of head and shoulder pattern evolving on the hourly gold chart.
I would definetely not wait for the pattern to break and go short from there because the target price is way too far and the drop might be stopped before we could reach it.If you want to short it I think it's better to short it from here and put your stop right above the 200 and 100 SMA at 1510.
The risk is to lose 10$.

On the daily chart we could back test the 50SMA and the false breakout at 1453 at the daily cycle low.
If you take this trade I suggest a small position only because.
Comment: *because probably there is still one more daily cycle in this intermediate cycle.
Trade closed: stop reached: Stopped at 1510.157 on Friday. Today it seems again toppy.
Comment:
Comment: The opening gap was filled. If we drop below 1500-1510 DCL is again on the table. And maybe the ICL as well.
So much news moving this and equities, Powell, Trump/China. Gold not pushing to new high on this move(at least not yet) and volume is avg.; still feels like we could see a move down like you say, weekly RSI is above 84, how long can that last without a good move down; go back 15 yrs on weekly chart and every time you see a weekly RSI at ~80ish or above fairly substantial move down before continued move up....
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Bold my friend, very bold :) Have you checked out the MINERS? I have a feeling they might've already put in a DCL on the 19th, but I could be wrong. We had follow through yesterday (swing low confirmation) after printing an INVERTED HAMMER on Monday. Today they seem to be holding up well.

I went LONG NUGT/JNUG yesterday -- just a partial position, nothing earth shattering.
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@Nightstar, I dont like the volume , MACD in the miners yet. I think Bollinger band lower line tag/crash is coming withRSI oversold and MACD at zero line with a high volume. I also would like to see a 50SMA tag.
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Nightstar chartwatchers
@chartwatchers, ALL GOOD POINTS my man, but bare in mind the MACD lags big time, meaning.. GDX could pop and reach the baby bull highs while the MACD continues to drag and diverge.

That being said: If GDX closes below the 21DMA, then I'll likely exit, take a small loss and wait for the next set-up.
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Hi Arpi,
Whats your long term view on Gold? Waiting for DCL?
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@mkandy, DCL is 5-7 days plan. I’m waiting for one more daily cycle to 1550 -1600 in september.
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RogerS chartwatchers
@chartwatchers, Are you thinking in a Left Translated 3rd Cycle ?
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@RogerS, I think its going to be right translated with a higher high at 1550-1600.then ICL into year end. Maybe november.
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