I agree with your concepts but not your economics or history.
He fired cruise missiles this time last year ... some 70 I believe and for the same reason.
That was unilateral
This was multilateral action, and they have been fighting/ dropping bombs for last 9 years ... ISIS (in Syria), Iraq, Afghanistan (Al Quaeda and ISIS) ...
I believe your catalyst may be lack of support at home; the ongoing legal stuff (yawn) and Russia, Russia, Russia!
All the 2018 Price action looks like upside consolidation to me: (1350-1240) + 1310 := 1420+ with a stop just below your pt (4) trend line.
... just my 2c worth
Yes, upon checking i was wrong. Obama did it in 2014. First trump attack was in April 2017. Gold trended up after these events.