Gold is currently undergoing a 44-45 total day fractal period of somewhat consolidation within a channel similar to what we saw this past summer. What we have our eyes on now is likely a very strong pre-breakout technical pattern that will ultimately break to the upside as early as next week.
Based on many key indicators and technicals it appears that broader equity market actually [finally] 'wants' to correct and looking for a reason to do so. As such, it will likely be on the platform of Gold and Silver running away to the next leg higher. Gold will march to at-least 1700, while Silver will march to at-least 21.50-22.00.
The Gold miners (JNUG, NUGT) have lagged tremendously and they will likely explode to the upside in a massive way at some point in February and/or March.
There will likely be a few smaller bumps along the way when Gold gets to the mid to upper 1590s before finally breaking 1600. A break above 1600 unlocks the inevitability of 1700 and depending on momentum, 1800 cannot be ruled out.
From there, a correction sometime in late April into May and June will likely be in-front of us before Gold makes another run near the election into the 1900-2000 range later in 2020.
Note: As Gold gets into the 1589-1595 range there could be some fierce volatility. Hold your ground and remain patient as this represents the near-end of the length of the channel.
Fractals need volume confirmation. My software says: 1515-1530 by Tuesday 2/11. Followed by a run up to 1575 around late Feb to early March. That's all that can be gauged at this time. Whie 1920 is my May 25th thesis, the break out is far from being confirmed right now. Gold is going to shock you in a bad way in the next 48 hours. Bet my non existent reputation on it.
PaulDeep19131
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@MQP, Thank you for your comment.
I'd like to genuinely hear what sort of confirmation you have that volume is weak or weaker or weakening on Gold. There has been an increase in overall volume, leveraged fund volume, etf volume, overall finite volume, OBW, CMF in the past few months and it has maintained or been gaining. Yes physical volume in North America is down, but Canadians/Americans are notoriously known especially at a retail level for not purchasing physical notes, but rather buying leveraged etfs or etfs.
While I certainly don't disagree a 1535 is impossible in the near term as no one can predict anything to perfection, I believe the market has drastically under-represented the significance of the coronavirus on China's economic situation. I believe the virus will impact China's GDP in a huge way which will impact the global economy - even if its just for the first quarter.
While I don't disagree 1535 is possible, I believe a test to that level will be very short lived and the confidence is lower than what I have represented here in my idea. Overall though I view any level below 1550 a significant buying opportunity and I don't personally view a <1550 re-test is likely for now.
The equity market is looking for a reason to sell-off at this point based on several technical indicators, Arms Index, and many other chart patterns so I view any breakdown in Gold as simply a liquidity fake-out.