In my previous short term strategy, effected short from $1276 to Tp1:$1262,Tp2:$1251…However, I closed short after Tp1 reached. Now in this strategy you’ll find why I closed at the time, instead of waiting for Tp2. Here’s a potential reversal in short term, can try to buy from the buying zone, Entry from$1264 to$1266, for potential “W” pattern target $1278(Tp1). Broke $1270 will confirm the pattern. Since next week FOMC and NFP, suggest range trading between $1264-$1278. If breaking out important resistant level $1278, will test $1284(Tp2). Once $1288 broken, will possibly see new high, so, Tp3 to be advised after $1288. If broke $1262, will back to down trend. Not easy to decide now…
The Fundamentals: 1) The situation of the Korean Peninsula are in high tensions; 2) U.S. GDP on Q1 hit a three year low, due to PCE slowdown; 3) China's gold production fell nearly 10% in Q1, but consumption rose slightly; 4) From the macro-factors, the inflation still NOT optimistic, although the Fed raised nominal interest rates, the real interest rates are still negative. Meanwhile,10-y Treasury yields hovering around 2.25%, and the stock market average yield are working very close to 10-y, it’s unsatisfied level. That is why the Fund mangers were suggesting investors to buy Gold assets. Uncle Trump’s tax cut reform may cause more deficits. In addition, US dollar buying power in long term is down, during the past 50 yrs decreased by 86%.
Next week Focus:
1. May-1, the core PCE index in Mar. / the ISM manufacturing index in Apr. 2. May-3, ADP in Apr./FOMC rate decision 3. May-5, NFP/unemployment/average hourly wage rate in Apr.
On conclusion, although Gold looks be beneficial by the above fundamentals, but, except for the macro-factors, they all have limited impact, especially bad data are possibly due to bad weather always happened in Q1. So, for long term, I have my reservations on buying Gold, but before breaking out $1288 in short term, still NOT exclude deeper retracement. Always, take care and trade safe!
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range is 1262-1270now, gold has no power to break 1270. still in bearish tone.
Trade active
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long entry1263now
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with tight sl at 1258
Trade closed manually
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$1270 has strong resistance, i closed my longs. It is small range trading, as far as 1270 blocked, it's still inbearish tone.
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Once 1262 being confirmed broken, i will back to short again. Hope FOMC will give a good chance.